Updated through games of January 7

Parameters

  • Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.374

  • Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`

  • Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.35/(R_A^2.35+R_B^2.35)`

  • Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.8*ln(R_A/R_B)`

  • Home field equivalent to 4.7 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank Team Record SOS Rating Win % vs Average Margin vs Average

1

Oregon

12-1-0

1.343

7.2042

0.9904

29.2

2

Alabama

13-1-0

1.472

6.8688

0.9893

28.5

3

Texas A&M

11-2-0

1.499

4.4629

0.9711

22.1

4

Georgia

12-2-0

1.329

4.1184

0.9653

20.9

5

Florida

11-2-0

1.603

3.8505

0.9596

20.0

6

Kansas State

11-2-0

1.373

3.5832

0.9525

18.9

7

Utah State

11-2-0

0.9705

3.5273

0.9508

18.7

8

Notre Dame

12-1-0

1.411

3.5073

0.9502

18.6

9

South Carolina

11-2-0

1.366

3.467

0.9489

18.4

10

Florida State

12-2-0

0.9885

3.3387

0.9444

17.8

11

Ohio State

12-0-0

1.032

3.0531

0.9323

16.5

12

Stanford

12-2-0

1.434

2.9166

0.9252

15.8

13

LSU

10-3-0

1.396

2.8146

0.9192

15.3

14

Clemson

11-2-0

1.022

2.8044

0.9186

15.3

15

Oklahoma

10-3-0

1.369

2.522

0.8979

13.7

16

San Jose State

11-2-0

0.9801

2.5153

0.8973

13.7

17

Oregon State

9-4-0

1.374

2.3691

0.8836

12.8

18

Brigham Young

8-5-0

1.115

2.1654

0.8600

11.4

19

Oklahoma State

8-5-0

1.215

2.1363

0.8562

11.2

20

Cincinnati

10-3-0

0.8126

2.0801

0.8483

10.8

21

Boise State

11-2-0

0.816

2.0602

0.8454

10.7

22

Wisconsin

8-6-0

1.216

1.9997

0.8360

10.3

23

Louisiana Tech

9-3-0

0.8754

1.9643

0.8301

10.0

24

Northwestern

10-3-0

1.012

1.9623

0.8298

10.0

25

Northern Illinois

12-2-0

0.7053

1.9595

0.8293

10.0

26

Texas

9-4-0

1.291

1.9522

0.8281

9.9

27

Central Florida

10-4-0

0.8443

1.9158

0.8217

9.6

28

Fresno State

9-4-0

0.908

1.9141

0.8214

9.6

29

Michigan

8-5-0

1.314

1.9114

0.8209

9.6

30

Nebraska

10-4-0

1.308

1.9037

0.8195

9.5

31

Baylor

8-5-0

1.279

1.8573

0.8108

9.2

32

USC

7-6-0

1.334

1.8065

0.8006

8.8

33

Vanderbilt

9-4-0

1.132

1.8023

0.7997

8.7

34

Penn State

8-4-0

0.9832

1.7865

0.7963

8.6

35

Kent State

11-3-0

0.8037

1.784

0.7958

8.6

36

Arizona State

8-5-0

1.037

1.7559

0.7897

8.3

37

Arkansas State

10-3-0

0.9758

1.7432

0.7868

8.2

38

Louisville

11-2-0

0.8916

1.6468

0.7636

7.4

39

Mississippi

7-6-0

1.242

1.6292

0.7590

7.2

40

Tulsa

11-3-0

0.8717

1.5948

0.7497

6.9

41

UCLA

9-5-0

1.16

1.5941

0.7495

6.9

42

Rutgers

9-4-0

0.8794

1.5885

0.7479

6.8

43

Arizona

8-5-0

1.205

1.5824

0.7462

6.8

44

Michigan State

7-6-0

1.224

1.5206

0.7281

6.2

45

TCU

7-6-0

1.214

1.4674

0.7112

5.7

46

Louisiana-Lafayette

9-4-0

0.8479

1.4608

0.7090

5.6

47

North Carolina

8-4-0

0.7734

1.4264

0.6973

5.3

48

Mississippi State

8-5-0

1.085

1.413

0.6926

5.1

49

Syracuse

8-5-0

1.047

1.3955

0.6864

4.9

50

Georgia Tech

7-7-0

1.111

1.338

0.6647

4.3

51

Miami (Florida)

7-5-0

1.054

1.3279

0.6607

4.2

52

San Diego State

9-4-0

0.8248

1.3044

0.6512

3.9

53

Texas Tech

8-5-0

1.052

1.2887

0.6448

3.8

54

Washington

7-6-0

1.178

1.2641

0.6343

3.5

55

West Virginia

7-6-0

1.088

1.2043

0.6075

2.8

56

Ball State

9-4-0

0.9341

1.1992

0.6051

2.7

57

Missouri

5-7-0

1.519

1.1507

0.5818

2.1

58

Bowling Green

8-5-0

0.7677

1.1389

0.5758

1.9

59

Pittsburgh

6-7-0

0.9434

1.1269

0.5697

1.8

60

Iowa State

6-7-0

1.201

1.1252

0.5688

1.7

61

Tennessee

5-7-0

1.146

1.1056

0.5587

1.5

62

Toledo

8-4-0

0.8559

1.1

0.5557

1.4

63

Southern Methodist

7-6-0

0.8728

1.0981

0.5548

1.4

64

Virginia Tech

7-6-0

1.082

1.0738

0.5418

1.1

65

Louisiana-Monroe

8-5-0

0.8508

1.0736

0.5416

1.1

66

Ohio

9-4-0

0.6674

0.98828

0.4931

-0.2

67

Middle Tennessee

8-4-0

0.7727

0.96801

0.4809

-0.5

68

Nevada

6-6-0

0.7988

0.94199

0.4649

-0.9

69

Western Kentucky

7-6-0

0.7825

0.91216

0.4462

-1.4

70

Navy

8-5-0

0.8404

0.90239

0.4399

-1.5

71

Arkansas

4-8-0

1.201

0.8828

0.4273

-1.8

72

Utah

5-7-0

1.046

0.87923

0.4250

-1.9

73

North Carolina State

7-6-0

0.8451

0.83079

0.3928

-2.7

74

Rice

7-6-0

0.7294

0.82031

0.3857

-2.9

75

Duke

6-7-0

0.9781

0.80652

0.3763

-3.2

76

East Carolina

8-5-0

0.7062

0.80189

0.3731

-3.3

77

Purdue

6-7-0

0.9167

0.7656

0.3480

-4.0

78

Troy

5-7-0

0.7995

0.75027

0.3373

-4.3

79

Iowa

4-8-0

0.9686

0.74957

0.3368

-4.3

80

Minnesota

6-7-0

0.8723

0.71097

0.3097

-5.0

81

Indiana

4-8-0

0.9043

0.69771

0.3003

-5.3

82

Connecticut

5-7-0

0.8309

0.66778

0.2791

-6.0

83

California

3-9-0

1.174

0.6589

0.2728

-6.2

84

Auburn

3-9-0

1.174

0.64282

0.2614

-6.5

85

Houston

5-7-0

0.7318

0.63559

0.2564

-6.7

86

UTSA

6-4-0

0.6455

0.61479

0.2417

-7.2

87

Marshall

5-7-0

0.7224

0.61475

0.2417

-7.2

88

South Florida

3-9-0

1.035

0.61308

0.2405

-7.2

89

Air Force

6-7-0

0.6511

0.5855

0.2213

-7.9

90

Virginia

4-8-0

0.8966

0.57154

0.2117

-8.3

91

Western Michigan

4-7-0

0.6571

0.56806

0.2093

-8.4

92

North Texas

4-8-0

0.8898

0.55747

0.2021

-8.6

93

Central Michigan

7-6-0

0.6426

0.55345

0.1994

-8.8

94

Maryland

4-8-0

0.8307

0.54753

0.1954

-8.9

95

Temple

4-7-0

0.8338

0.52029

0.1772

-9.7

96

Kentucky

2-10-0

1.183

0.51634

0.1746

-9.8

97

Wake Forest

5-7-0

0.8239

0.50875

0.1697

-10.0

98

Florida International

3-9-0

0.8472

0.50015

0.1641

-10.3

99

Texas State

4-8-0

0.7377

0.49938

0.1636

-10.3

100

New Mexico

4-9-0

0.6529

0.49724

0.1622

-10.3

101

Buffalo

4-8-0

0.8003

0.49506

0.1608

-10.4

102

Wyoming

4-8-0

0.7074

0.48111

0.1519

-10.8

103

Miami (Ohio)

4-8-0

0.8146

0.47007

0.1451

-11.2

104

Memphis

4-8-0

0.6802

0.45587

0.1363

-11.6

105

Kansas

1-11-0

1.166

0.44414

0.1293

-12.0

106

Washington State

3-9-0

0.9145

0.42383

0.1174

-12.7

107

Florida Atlantic

3-9-0

0.8308

0.422

0.1164

-12.8

108

Boston College

2-10-0

0.9161

0.39988

0.1040

-13.6

109

UTEP

3-9-0

0.7976

0.37075

0.0885

-14.7

110

UAB

3-9-0

0.7001

0.35461

0.0804

-15.3

111

Colorado State

4-8-0

0.6661

0.35319

0.0798

-15.4

112

Illinois

2-10-0

0.921

0.35145

0.0789

-15.5

113

Tulane

2-10-0

0.8102

0.31947

0.0641

-16.9

114

Hawaii

3-9-0

0.6797

0.31647

0.0628

-17.0

115

Army

2-10-0

0.6733

0.29968

0.0556

-17.8

116

Eastern Michigan

2-10-0

0.7787

0.29397

0.0533

-18.1

117

UNLV

2-11-0

0.6418

0.29112

0.0522

-18.3

118

Akron

1-11-0

0.7206

0.27416

0.0456

-19.2

119

South Alabama

2-11-0

0.6804

0.26274

0.0414

-19.8

120

Colorado

1-11-0

0.9007

0.23264

0.0315

-21.6

121

Southern Miss

0-12-0

0.8118

0.21252

0.0256

-22.9

122

Idaho

1-11-0

0.7588

0.20882

0.0246

-23.2

123

Massachusetts

1-11-0

0.7791

0.20016

0.0223

-23.8

124

New Mexico State

1-11-0

0.6757

0.17824

0.0171

-25.5

125

1-AA

10-95-0

1.111

0.16802

0.0149

-26.4