Updated through games of January 7
Parameters
-
Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.374
-
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
-
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.35/(R_A^2.35+R_B^2.35)`
-
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.8*ln(R_A/R_B)`
-
Home field equivalent to 4.7 points in expected margin
Ratings
Rank | Team | Record | SOS | Rating | Win % vs Average | Margin vs Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Oregon |
12-1-0 |
1.343 |
7.2042 |
0.9904 |
29.2 |
2 |
Alabama |
13-1-0 |
1.472 |
6.8688 |
0.9893 |
28.5 |
3 |
Texas A&M |
11-2-0 |
1.499 |
4.4629 |
0.9711 |
22.1 |
4 |
Georgia |
12-2-0 |
1.329 |
4.1184 |
0.9653 |
20.9 |
5 |
Florida |
11-2-0 |
1.603 |
3.8505 |
0.9596 |
20.0 |
6 |
Kansas State |
11-2-0 |
1.373 |
3.5832 |
0.9525 |
18.9 |
7 |
Utah State |
11-2-0 |
0.9705 |
3.5273 |
0.9508 |
18.7 |
8 |
Notre Dame |
12-1-0 |
1.411 |
3.5073 |
0.9502 |
18.6 |
9 |
South Carolina |
11-2-0 |
1.366 |
3.467 |
0.9489 |
18.4 |
10 |
Florida State |
12-2-0 |
0.9885 |
3.3387 |
0.9444 |
17.8 |
11 |
Ohio State |
12-0-0 |
1.032 |
3.0531 |
0.9323 |
16.5 |
12 |
Stanford |
12-2-0 |
1.434 |
2.9166 |
0.9252 |
15.8 |
13 |
LSU |
10-3-0 |
1.396 |
2.8146 |
0.9192 |
15.3 |
14 |
Clemson |
11-2-0 |
1.022 |
2.8044 |
0.9186 |
15.3 |
15 |
Oklahoma |
10-3-0 |
1.369 |
2.522 |
0.8979 |
13.7 |
16 |
San Jose State |
11-2-0 |
0.9801 |
2.5153 |
0.8973 |
13.7 |
17 |
Oregon State |
9-4-0 |
1.374 |
2.3691 |
0.8836 |
12.8 |
18 |
Brigham Young |
8-5-0 |
1.115 |
2.1654 |
0.8600 |
11.4 |
19 |
Oklahoma State |
8-5-0 |
1.215 |
2.1363 |
0.8562 |
11.2 |
20 |
Cincinnati |
10-3-0 |
0.8126 |
2.0801 |
0.8483 |
10.8 |
21 |
Boise State |
11-2-0 |
0.816 |
2.0602 |
0.8454 |
10.7 |
22 |
Wisconsin |
8-6-0 |
1.216 |
1.9997 |
0.8360 |
10.3 |
23 |
Louisiana Tech |
9-3-0 |
0.8754 |
1.9643 |
0.8301 |
10.0 |
24 |
Northwestern |
10-3-0 |
1.012 |
1.9623 |
0.8298 |
10.0 |
25 |
Northern Illinois |
12-2-0 |
0.7053 |
1.9595 |
0.8293 |
10.0 |
26 |
Texas |
9-4-0 |
1.291 |
1.9522 |
0.8281 |
9.9 |
27 |
Central Florida |
10-4-0 |
0.8443 |
1.9158 |
0.8217 |
9.6 |
28 |
Fresno State |
9-4-0 |
0.908 |
1.9141 |
0.8214 |
9.6 |
29 |
Michigan |
8-5-0 |
1.314 |
1.9114 |
0.8209 |
9.6 |
30 |
Nebraska |
10-4-0 |
1.308 |
1.9037 |
0.8195 |
9.5 |
31 |
Baylor |
8-5-0 |
1.279 |
1.8573 |
0.8108 |
9.2 |
32 |
USC |
7-6-0 |
1.334 |
1.8065 |
0.8006 |
8.8 |
33 |
Vanderbilt |
9-4-0 |
1.132 |
1.8023 |
0.7997 |
8.7 |
34 |
Penn State |
8-4-0 |
0.9832 |
1.7865 |
0.7963 |
8.6 |
35 |
Kent State |
11-3-0 |
0.8037 |
1.784 |
0.7958 |
8.6 |
36 |
Arizona State |
8-5-0 |
1.037 |
1.7559 |
0.7897 |
8.3 |
37 |
Arkansas State |
10-3-0 |
0.9758 |
1.7432 |
0.7868 |
8.2 |
38 |
Louisville |
11-2-0 |
0.8916 |
1.6468 |
0.7636 |
7.4 |
39 |
Mississippi |
7-6-0 |
1.242 |
1.6292 |
0.7590 |
7.2 |
40 |
Tulsa |
11-3-0 |
0.8717 |
1.5948 |
0.7497 |
6.9 |
41 |
UCLA |
9-5-0 |
1.16 |
1.5941 |
0.7495 |
6.9 |
42 |
Rutgers |
9-4-0 |
0.8794 |
1.5885 |
0.7479 |
6.8 |
43 |
Arizona |
8-5-0 |
1.205 |
1.5824 |
0.7462 |
6.8 |
44 |
Michigan State |
7-6-0 |
1.224 |
1.5206 |
0.7281 |
6.2 |
45 |
TCU |
7-6-0 |
1.214 |
1.4674 |
0.7112 |
5.7 |
46 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
9-4-0 |
0.8479 |
1.4608 |
0.7090 |
5.6 |
47 |
North Carolina |
8-4-0 |
0.7734 |
1.4264 |
0.6973 |
5.3 |
48 |
Mississippi State |
8-5-0 |
1.085 |
1.413 |
0.6926 |
5.1 |
49 |
Syracuse |
8-5-0 |
1.047 |
1.3955 |
0.6864 |
4.9 |
50 |
Georgia Tech |
7-7-0 |
1.111 |
1.338 |
0.6647 |
4.3 |
51 |
Miami (Florida) |
7-5-0 |
1.054 |
1.3279 |
0.6607 |
4.2 |
52 |
San Diego State |
9-4-0 |
0.8248 |
1.3044 |
0.6512 |
3.9 |
53 |
Texas Tech |
8-5-0 |
1.052 |
1.2887 |
0.6448 |
3.8 |
54 |
Washington |
7-6-0 |
1.178 |
1.2641 |
0.6343 |
3.5 |
55 |
West Virginia |
7-6-0 |
1.088 |
1.2043 |
0.6075 |
2.8 |
56 |
Ball State |
9-4-0 |
0.9341 |
1.1992 |
0.6051 |
2.7 |
57 |
Missouri |
5-7-0 |
1.519 |
1.1507 |
0.5818 |
2.1 |
58 |
Bowling Green |
8-5-0 |
0.7677 |
1.1389 |
0.5758 |
1.9 |
59 |
Pittsburgh |
6-7-0 |
0.9434 |
1.1269 |
0.5697 |
1.8 |
60 |
Iowa State |
6-7-0 |
1.201 |
1.1252 |
0.5688 |
1.7 |
61 |
Tennessee |
5-7-0 |
1.146 |
1.1056 |
0.5587 |
1.5 |
62 |
Toledo |
8-4-0 |
0.8559 |
1.1 |
0.5557 |
1.4 |
63 |
Southern Methodist |
7-6-0 |
0.8728 |
1.0981 |
0.5548 |
1.4 |
64 |
Virginia Tech |
7-6-0 |
1.082 |
1.0738 |
0.5418 |
1.1 |
65 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
8-5-0 |
0.8508 |
1.0736 |
0.5416 |
1.1 |
66 |
Ohio |
9-4-0 |
0.6674 |
0.98828 |
0.4931 |
-0.2 |
67 |
Middle Tennessee |
8-4-0 |
0.7727 |
0.96801 |
0.4809 |
-0.5 |
68 |
Nevada |
6-6-0 |
0.7988 |
0.94199 |
0.4649 |
-0.9 |
69 |
Western Kentucky |
7-6-0 |
0.7825 |
0.91216 |
0.4462 |
-1.4 |
70 |
Navy |
8-5-0 |
0.8404 |
0.90239 |
0.4399 |
-1.5 |
71 |
Arkansas |
4-8-0 |
1.201 |
0.8828 |
0.4273 |
-1.8 |
72 |
Utah |
5-7-0 |
1.046 |
0.87923 |
0.4250 |
-1.9 |
73 |
North Carolina State |
7-6-0 |
0.8451 |
0.83079 |
0.3928 |
-2.7 |
74 |
Rice |
7-6-0 |
0.7294 |
0.82031 |
0.3857 |
-2.9 |
75 |
Duke |
6-7-0 |
0.9781 |
0.80652 |
0.3763 |
-3.2 |
76 |
East Carolina |
8-5-0 |
0.7062 |
0.80189 |
0.3731 |
-3.3 |
77 |
Purdue |
6-7-0 |
0.9167 |
0.7656 |
0.3480 |
-4.0 |
78 |
Troy |
5-7-0 |
0.7995 |
0.75027 |
0.3373 |
-4.3 |
79 |
Iowa |
4-8-0 |
0.9686 |
0.74957 |
0.3368 |
-4.3 |
80 |
Minnesota |
6-7-0 |
0.8723 |
0.71097 |
0.3097 |
-5.0 |
81 |
Indiana |
4-8-0 |
0.9043 |
0.69771 |
0.3003 |
-5.3 |
82 |
Connecticut |
5-7-0 |
0.8309 |
0.66778 |
0.2791 |
-6.0 |
83 |
California |
3-9-0 |
1.174 |
0.6589 |
0.2728 |
-6.2 |
84 |
Auburn |
3-9-0 |
1.174 |
0.64282 |
0.2614 |
-6.5 |
85 |
Houston |
5-7-0 |
0.7318 |
0.63559 |
0.2564 |
-6.7 |
86 |
UTSA |
6-4-0 |
0.6455 |
0.61479 |
0.2417 |
-7.2 |
87 |
Marshall |
5-7-0 |
0.7224 |
0.61475 |
0.2417 |
-7.2 |
88 |
South Florida |
3-9-0 |
1.035 |
0.61308 |
0.2405 |
-7.2 |
89 |
Air Force |
6-7-0 |
0.6511 |
0.5855 |
0.2213 |
-7.9 |
90 |
Virginia |
4-8-0 |
0.8966 |
0.57154 |
0.2117 |
-8.3 |
91 |
Western Michigan |
4-7-0 |
0.6571 |
0.56806 |
0.2093 |
-8.4 |
92 |
North Texas |
4-8-0 |
0.8898 |
0.55747 |
0.2021 |
-8.6 |
93 |
Central Michigan |
7-6-0 |
0.6426 |
0.55345 |
0.1994 |
-8.8 |
94 |
Maryland |
4-8-0 |
0.8307 |
0.54753 |
0.1954 |
-8.9 |
95 |
Temple |
4-7-0 |
0.8338 |
0.52029 |
0.1772 |
-9.7 |
96 |
Kentucky |
2-10-0 |
1.183 |
0.51634 |
0.1746 |
-9.8 |
97 |
Wake Forest |
5-7-0 |
0.8239 |
0.50875 |
0.1697 |
-10.0 |
98 |
Florida International |
3-9-0 |
0.8472 |
0.50015 |
0.1641 |
-10.3 |
99 |
Texas State |
4-8-0 |
0.7377 |
0.49938 |
0.1636 |
-10.3 |
100 |
New Mexico |
4-9-0 |
0.6529 |
0.49724 |
0.1622 |
-10.3 |
101 |
Buffalo |
4-8-0 |
0.8003 |
0.49506 |
0.1608 |
-10.4 |
102 |
Wyoming |
4-8-0 |
0.7074 |
0.48111 |
0.1519 |
-10.8 |
103 |
Miami (Ohio) |
4-8-0 |
0.8146 |
0.47007 |
0.1451 |
-11.2 |
104 |
Memphis |
4-8-0 |
0.6802 |
0.45587 |
0.1363 |
-11.6 |
105 |
Kansas |
1-11-0 |
1.166 |
0.44414 |
0.1293 |
-12.0 |
106 |
Washington State |
3-9-0 |
0.9145 |
0.42383 |
0.1174 |
-12.7 |
107 |
Florida Atlantic |
3-9-0 |
0.8308 |
0.422 |
0.1164 |
-12.8 |
108 |
Boston College |
2-10-0 |
0.9161 |
0.39988 |
0.1040 |
-13.6 |
109 |
UTEP |
3-9-0 |
0.7976 |
0.37075 |
0.0885 |
-14.7 |
110 |
UAB |
3-9-0 |
0.7001 |
0.35461 |
0.0804 |
-15.3 |
111 |
Colorado State |
4-8-0 |
0.6661 |
0.35319 |
0.0798 |
-15.4 |
112 |
Illinois |
2-10-0 |
0.921 |
0.35145 |
0.0789 |
-15.5 |
113 |
Tulane |
2-10-0 |
0.8102 |
0.31947 |
0.0641 |
-16.9 |
114 |
Hawaii |
3-9-0 |
0.6797 |
0.31647 |
0.0628 |
-17.0 |
115 |
Army |
2-10-0 |
0.6733 |
0.29968 |
0.0556 |
-17.8 |
116 |
Eastern Michigan |
2-10-0 |
0.7787 |
0.29397 |
0.0533 |
-18.1 |
117 |
UNLV |
2-11-0 |
0.6418 |
0.29112 |
0.0522 |
-18.3 |
118 |
Akron |
1-11-0 |
0.7206 |
0.27416 |
0.0456 |
-19.2 |
119 |
South Alabama |
2-11-0 |
0.6804 |
0.26274 |
0.0414 |
-19.8 |
120 |
Colorado |
1-11-0 |
0.9007 |
0.23264 |
0.0315 |
-21.6 |
121 |
Southern Miss |
0-12-0 |
0.8118 |
0.21252 |
0.0256 |
-22.9 |
122 |
Idaho |
1-11-0 |
0.7588 |
0.20882 |
0.0246 |
-23.2 |
123 |
Massachusetts |
1-11-0 |
0.7791 |
0.20016 |
0.0223 |
-23.8 |
124 |
New Mexico State |
1-11-0 |
0.6757 |
0.17824 |
0.0171 |
-25.5 |
125 |
1-AA |
10-95-0 |
1.111 |
0.16802 |
0.0149 |
-26.4 |