Updated through games of January 6
Parameters
-
Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.384
-
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
-
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.3/(R_A^2.3+R_B^2.3)`
-
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=15.0*ln(R_A/R_B)`
-
Home field equivalent to 4.9 points in expected margin
Ratings
| Rank | Team | Record | SOS | Rating | Win % vs Average | Margin vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Florida State |
14-0-0 |
1.239 |
9.0657 |
0.9938 |
33.1 |
2 |
Missouri |
12-2-0 |
1.467 |
4.8253 |
0.9739 |
23.6 |
3 |
Alabama |
11-2-0 |
1.327 |
4.5813 |
0.9707 |
22.8 |
4 |
Michigan State |
13-1-0 |
1.131 |
4.2658 |
0.9657 |
21.8 |
5 |
Oregon |
11-2-0 |
1.267 |
4.073 |
0.9620 |
21.1 |
6 |
Auburn |
12-2-0 |
1.662 |
4.0546 |
0.9616 |
21.0 |
7 |
Stanford |
11-3-0 |
1.623 |
3.8874 |
0.9578 |
20.4 |
8 |
Baylor |
11-2-0 |
1.114 |
3.3928 |
0.9432 |
18.3 |
9 |
UCLA |
10-3-0 |
1.499 |
3.3397 |
0.9412 |
18.1 |
10 |
Ohio State |
12-2-0 |
1.088 |
3.2971 |
0.9396 |
17.9 |
11 |
South Carolina |
11-2-0 |
1.414 |
3.2498 |
0.9377 |
17.7 |
12 |
Oklahoma State |
10-3-0 |
1.257 |
3.141 |
0.9329 |
17.2 |
13 |
Clemson |
11-2-0 |
1.235 |
3.097 |
0.9309 |
17.0 |
14 |
LSU |
10-3-0 |
1.317 |
3.0929 |
0.9307 |
16.9 |
15 |
Louisville |
12-1-0 |
0.7393 |
2.9819 |
0.9250 |
16.4 |
16 |
Oklahoma |
11-2-0 |
1.306 |
2.945 |
0.9230 |
16.2 |
17 |
Wisconsin |
9-4-0 |
1.165 |
2.7298 |
0.9097 |
15.1 |
18 |
Washington |
9-4-0 |
1.367 |
2.6656 |
0.9051 |
14.7 |
19 |
Arizona State |
10-4-0 |
1.533 |
2.6289 |
0.9023 |
14.5 |
20 |
Texas A&M |
9-4-0 |
1.373 |
2.4619 |
0.8882 |
13.5 |
21 |
USC |
10-4-0 |
1.29 |
2.3481 |
0.8769 |
12.8 |
22 |
Central Florida |
12-1-0 |
0.949 |
2.2179 |
0.8620 |
11.9 |
23 |
Georgia |
8-5-0 |
1.533 |
2.1627 |
0.8550 |
11.6 |
24 |
East Carolina |
10-3-0 |
0.81 |
2.104 |
0.8469 |
11.2 |
25 |
Bowling Green |
10-4-0 |
0.7379 |
2.0209 |
0.8345 |
10.6 |
26 |
Arizona |
8-5-0 |
1.251 |
1.9862 |
0.8290 |
10.3 |
27 |
Mississippi |
8-5-0 |
1.398 |
1.9129 |
0.8163 |
9.7 |
28 |
Northern Illinois |
12-2-0 |
0.7189 |
1.8969 |
0.8134 |
9.6 |
29 |
Duke |
10-4-0 |
1.112 |
1.8375 |
0.8021 |
9.1 |
30 |
Brigham Young |
8-5-0 |
1.202 |
1.7773 |
0.7896 |
8.6 |
31 |
Virginia Tech |
8-5-0 |
1.308 |
1.7561 |
0.7850 |
8.4 |
32 |
Notre Dame |
9-4-0 |
1.28 |
1.7494 |
0.7835 |
8.4 |
33 |
Kansas State |
8-5-0 |
1.005 |
1.7331 |
0.7799 |
8.2 |
34 |
Marshall |
10-4-0 |
0.7631 |
1.7275 |
0.7786 |
8.2 |
35 |
Utah State |
9-5-0 |
0.9455 |
1.711 |
0.7748 |
8.1 |
36 |
Vanderbilt |
9-4-0 |
1.106 |
1.6753 |
0.7662 |
7.7 |
37 |
Navy |
9-4-0 |
0.9165 |
1.6359 |
0.7562 |
7.4 |
38 |
North Texas |
9-4-0 |
0.7626 |
1.6171 |
0.7513 |
7.2 |
39 |
Iowa |
8-5-0 |
1.148 |
1.6078 |
0.7488 |
7.1 |
40 |
Houston |
8-5-0 |
0.9475 |
1.5817 |
0.7416 |
6.9 |
41 |
Boise State |
8-5-0 |
0.9029 |
1.548 |
0.7320 |
6.6 |
42 |
Miami (Florida) |
9-4-0 |
1.125 |
1.5422 |
0.7304 |
6.5 |
43 |
Ball State |
10-3-0 |
0.6375 |
1.5339 |
0.7279 |
6.4 |
44 |
North Carolina |
7-6-0 |
1.122 |
1.5101 |
0.7207 |
6.2 |
45 |
Fresno State |
11-2-0 |
0.7294 |
1.5073 |
0.7199 |
6.2 |
46 |
Texas |
8-5-0 |
1.267 |
1.4834 |
0.7124 |
5.9 |
47 |
Oregon State |
7-6-0 |
1.194 |
1.4768 |
0.7103 |
5.8 |
48 |
Michigan |
7-6-0 |
1.144 |
1.4603 |
0.7049 |
5.7 |
49 |
Georgia Tech |
7-6-0 |
1.144 |
1.4073 |
0.6869 |
5.1 |
50 |
Texas Tech |
8-5-0 |
1.074 |
1.3993 |
0.6841 |
5.0 |
51 |
Mississippi State |
7-6-0 |
1.384 |
1.3885 |
0.6802 |
4.9 |
52 |
Minnesota |
8-5-0 |
1.016 |
1.3135 |
0.6519 |
4.1 |
53 |
Utah |
5-7-0 |
1.456 |
1.2265 |
0.6153 |
3.1 |
54 |
Pittsburgh |
7-6-0 |
1.258 |
1.206 |
0.6061 |
2.8 |
55 |
Nebraska |
9-4-0 |
0.9391 |
1.2007 |
0.6036 |
2.7 |
56 |
Penn State |
7-5-0 |
0.9898 |
1.1969 |
0.6019 |
2.7 |
57 |
Syracuse |
7-6-0 |
1.089 |
1.1613 |
0.5851 |
2.2 |
58 |
Rice |
10-4-0 |
0.8232 |
1.1598 |
0.5844 |
2.2 |
59 |
Washington State |
6-7-0 |
1.295 |
1.1564 |
0.5828 |
2.2 |
60 |
Cincinnati |
9-4-0 |
0.6653 |
1.1486 |
0.5790 |
2.1 |
61 |
Indiana |
5-7-0 |
1.201 |
1.1291 |
0.5694 |
1.8 |
62 |
Florida |
4-8-0 |
1.342 |
1.1169 |
0.5632 |
1.7 |
63 |
Boston College |
7-6-0 |
1.077 |
1.1051 |
0.5572 |
1.5 |
64 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
9-4-0 |
0.7297 |
1.0952 |
0.5521 |
1.4 |
65 |
Tennessee |
5-7-0 |
1.398 |
1.0874 |
0.5480 |
1.3 |
66 |
Toledo |
7-5-0 |
0.9076 |
1.0854 |
0.5470 |
1.2 |
67 |
South Alabama |
6-6-0 |
0.7657 |
1.0651 |
0.5362 |
0.9 |
68 |
Western Kentucky |
8-4-0 |
0.7242 |
1.0605 |
0.5337 |
0.9 |
69 |
Tulane |
7-6-0 |
0.8483 |
1.0388 |
0.5219 |
0.6 |
70 |
Florida Atlantic |
6-6-0 |
0.8254 |
1.0267 |
0.5152 |
0.4 |
71 |
UTSA |
7-5-0 |
0.8946 |
0.983 |
0.4901 |
-0.3 |
72 |
TCU |
4-8-0 |
1.092 |
0.95425 |
0.4731 |
-0.7 |
73 |
Maryland |
7-6-0 |
0.9081 |
0.95304 |
0.4724 |
-0.7 |
74 |
Colorado State |
8-6-0 |
0.7218 |
0.95246 |
0.4720 |
-0.7 |
75 |
Buffalo |
8-5-0 |
0.6798 |
0.94807 |
0.4694 |
-0.8 |
76 |
Northwestern |
5-7-0 |
0.9941 |
0.94123 |
0.4652 |
-0.9 |
77 |
Wake Forest |
4-8-0 |
1.073 |
0.93083 |
0.4589 |
-1.1 |
78 |
Arkansas State |
8-5-0 |
0.827 |
0.91438 |
0.4487 |
-1.3 |
79 |
San Jose State |
6-6-0 |
0.9228 |
0.85354 |
0.4099 |
-2.4 |
80 |
Middle Tennessee |
8-5-0 |
0.7781 |
0.84191 |
0.4023 |
-2.6 |
81 |
San Diego State |
8-5-0 |
0.7375 |
0.76602 |
0.3514 |
-4.0 |
82 |
UNLV |
7-6-0 |
0.7559 |
0.75734 |
0.3454 |
-4.2 |
83 |
Ohio |
7-6-0 |
0.7081 |
0.75512 |
0.3439 |
-4.2 |
84 |
Troy |
6-6-0 |
0.8032 |
0.69917 |
0.3051 |
-5.4 |
85 |
Arkansas |
3-9-0 |
1.146 |
0.6858 |
0.2958 |
-5.7 |
86 |
Old Dominion |
8-4-0 |
0.5117 |
0.67135 |
0.2857 |
-6.0 |
87 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
6-6-0 |
0.8922 |
0.67134 |
0.2857 |
-6.0 |
88 |
Iowa State |
3-9-0 |
1.027 |
0.64618 |
0.2681 |
-6.6 |
89 |
Colorado |
4-8-0 |
1.065 |
0.63599 |
0.2610 |
-6.8 |
90 |
Nevada |
4-8-0 |
0.9201 |
0.62927 |
0.2563 |
-6.9 |
91 |
Southern Methodist |
5-7-0 |
0.7955 |
0.60967 |
0.2427 |
-7.4 |
92 |
Rutgers |
6-7-0 |
0.7466 |
0.60576 |
0.2400 |
-7.5 |
93 |
Illinois |
4-8-0 |
0.926 |
0.59756 |
0.2343 |
-7.7 |
94 |
West Virginia |
4-8-0 |
0.9165 |
0.55968 |
0.2083 |
-8.7 |
95 |
Kent State |
4-8-0 |
0.8239 |
0.54715 |
0.1999 |
-9.0 |
96 |
Memphis |
3-9-0 |
0.7906 |
0.52171 |
0.1830 |
-9.8 |
97 |
Wyoming |
5-7-0 |
0.6651 |
0.514 |
0.1779 |
-10.0 |
98 |
Texas State |
6-6-0 |
0.5997 |
0.51188 |
0.1765 |
-10.0 |
99 |
Akron |
5-7-0 |
0.7613 |
0.47941 |
0.1557 |
-11.0 |
100 |
Virginia |
2-10-0 |
1.18 |
0.47449 |
0.1526 |
-11.2 |
101 |
Kentucky |
2-10-0 |
1.064 |
0.47198 |
0.1510 |
-11.3 |
102 |
Temple |
2-10-0 |
0.7431 |
0.4704 |
0.1500 |
-11.3 |
103 |
Central Michigan |
6-6-0 |
0.5815 |
0.45271 |
0.1391 |
-11.9 |
104 |
Tulsa |
3-9-0 |
0.9657 |
0.4523 |
0.1389 |
-11.9 |
105 |
North Carolina State |
3-9-0 |
0.8937 |
0.43255 |
0.1270 |
-12.6 |
106 |
Connecticut |
3-9-0 |
0.7376 |
0.39652 |
0.1064 |
-13.9 |
107 |
Kansas |
3-9-0 |
0.9293 |
0.39327 |
0.1047 |
-14.0 |
108 |
Army |
3-9-0 |
0.6762 |
0.37915 |
0.0970 |
-14.5 |
109 |
Hawaii |
1-11-0 |
0.9298 |
0.37574 |
0.0952 |
-14.7 |
110 |
New Mexico |
3-9-0 |
0.7129 |
0.35613 |
0.0851 |
-15.5 |
111 |
Louisiana Tech |
4-8-0 |
0.5139 |
0.32926 |
0.0721 |
-16.7 |
112 |
UAB |
2-10-0 |
0.749 |
0.31224 |
0.0643 |
-17.5 |
113 |
Air Force |
2-10-0 |
0.7063 |
0.29285 |
0.0560 |
-18.4 |
114 |
South Florida |
2-10-0 |
0.8344 |
0.28783 |
0.0539 |
-18.7 |
115 |
California |
1-11-0 |
1.157 |
0.27525 |
0.0489 |
-19.4 |
116 |
Purdue |
1-11-0 |
1.053 |
0.26783 |
0.0461 |
-19.8 |
117 |
UTEP |
2-10-0 |
0.6206 |
0.25073 |
0.0399 |
-20.8 |
118 |
1-AA |
15-98-0 |
1.054 |
0.22364 |
0.0309 |
-22.5 |
119 |
Southern Miss |
1-11-0 |
0.723 |
0.20605 |
0.0258 |
-23.7 |
120 |
Western Michigan |
1-11-0 |
0.6621 |
0.19551 |
0.0229 |
-24.5 |
121 |
Massachusetts |
1-11-0 |
0.6055 |
0.18373 |
0.0199 |
-25.4 |
122 |
New Mexico State |
2-10-0 |
0.6055 |
0.17944 |
0.0189 |
-25.8 |
123 |
Eastern Michigan |
2-10-0 |
0.6937 |
0.17828 |
0.0186 |
-25.9 |
124 |
Idaho |
1-11-0 |
0.8343 |
0.17786 |
0.0185 |
-25.9 |
125 |
Georgia State |
0-12-0 |
0.5627 |
0.1494 |
0.0125 |
-28.5 |
126 |
Miami (Ohio) |
0-12-0 |
0.7244 |
0.13438 |
0.0098 |
-30.1 |
127 |
Florida International |
1-11-0 |
0.6086 |
0.13426 |
0.0098 |
-30.1 |