Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2014

Updated through games of January 12

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.271
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.19/(R_A^2.19+R_B^2.19)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.3*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 3.4 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Ohio State	14-1	1.506	5.9413	0.9802	25.5
2	Oregon	13-2	1.481	5.5349	0.9770	24.5
3	Alabama	12-2	1.63	4.5435	0.9649	21.6
4	TCU	12-1	1.132	4.2594	0.9598	20.7
5	Georgia	10-3	1.37	3.6417	0.9443	18.5
6	Marshall	13-1	0.7663	3.6338	0.9440	18.5
7	Georgia Tech	11-3	1.388	3.3937	0.9356	17.5
8	Michigan State	11-2	1.226	3.3508	0.9339	17.3
9	Baylor	11-2	1.097	3.2658	0.9303	16.9
10	Mississippi	9-4	1.618	3.2543	0.9298	16.9
11	Mississippi State	10-3	1.353	3.0103	0.9178	15.8
12	Florida State	13-1	1.317	2.885	0.9106	15.2
13	Boise State	12-2	1.062	2.7142	0.8991	14.3
14	Wisconsin	11-3	1.116	2.5543	0.8863	13.4
15	Auburn	8-5	1.683	2.5094	0.8823	13.2
16	Missouri	11-3	1.298	2.4746	0.8791	13.0
17	Clemson	10-3	1.203	2.4682	0.8785	12.9
18	UCLA	10-3	1.544	2.4144	0.8733	12.6
19	Arkansas	7-6	1.524	2.3527	0.8669	12.2
20	Stanford	8-5	1.291	2.3314	0.8646	12.1
21	Arizona State	10-3	1.197	2.3288	0.8643	12.1
22	USC	9-4	1.334	2.284	0.8592	11.8
23	Nebraska	9-4	1.075	2.1062	0.8363	10.7
24	Arizona	10-4	1.371	2.0913	0.8342	10.6
25	Oklahoma	8-5	1.218	2.0765	0.8320	10.4
26	Kansas State	9-4	1.192	2.0635	0.8301	10.4
27	Louisville	9-4	1.165	2.0433	0.8271	10.2
28	Memphis	10-3	0.8277	1.9408	0.8103	9.5
29	Louisiana Tech	9-5	1.01	1.8857	0.8004	9.1
30	Utah	9-4	1.281	1.8507	0.7938	8.8
31	LSU	8-5	1.38	1.8247	0.7887	8.6
32	Texas A&M	8-5	1.378	1.7612	0.7755	8.1
33	Notre Dame	8-5	1.237	1.7057	0.7630	7.6
34	Utah State	10-4	0.8639	1.6981	0.7613	7.6
35	Tennessee	7-6	1.326	1.6596	0.7520	7.2
36	Colorado State	10-3	0.8728	1.6519	0.7501	7.2
37	Florida	7-5	1.222	1.6343	0.7457	7.0
38	Duke	9-4	0.8808	1.6001	0.7368	6.7
39	Georgia Southern	9-3	0.7182	1.5771	0.7306	6.5
40	Virginia Tech	7-6	1.16	1.5486	0.7227	6.3
41	West Virginia	7-6	1.22	1.4836	0.7035	5.6
42	Minnesota	8-5	1.143	1.4632	0.6971	5.4
43	Air Force	10-3	0.8038	1.4584	0.6956	5.4
44	Boston College	7-6	1.078	1.4457	0.6915	5.3
45	Miami (Florida)	6-7	1.25	1.4442	0.6910	5.3
46	Brigham Young	8-5	0.9393	1.3894	0.6726	4.7
47	South Carolina	7-6	1.222	1.375	0.6676	4.6
48	Washington	8-6	0.9918	1.3266	0.6500	4.0
49	Cincinnati	9-4	0.8841	1.3204	0.6476	4.0
50	Northern Illinois	11-3	0.758	1.2575	0.6229	3.3
51	Rice	8-5	0.889	1.237	0.6144	3.0
52	East Carolina	8-5	0.7378	1.2333	0.6128	3.0
53	Central Florida	9-4	0.7295	1.2209	0.6076	2.9
54	Western Kentucky	8-5	0.877	1.2125	0.6039	2.8
55	North Carolina State	8-5	1.002	1.1858	0.5922	2.4
56	Pittsburgh	6-7	0.9723	1.1808	0.5900	2.4
57	Rutgers	8-5	1.075	1.1528	0.5772	2.0
58	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4	0.7888	1.1436	0.5730	1.9
59	Toledo	9-4	0.7322	1.1332	0.5681	1.8
60	Virginia	5-7	1.189	1.1331	0.5680	1.8
61	Texas	6-7	1.202	1.1251	0.5642	1.7
62	Navy	8-5	0.928	1.1103	0.5570	1.5
63	Penn State	7-6	1.024	1.1102	0.5570	1.5
64	Iowa	7-6	0.8964	1.1044	0.5542	1.4
65	Maryland	7-6	1.099	1.0947	0.5494	1.3
66	Western Michigan	8-5	0.7016	1.0763	0.5402	1.1
67	Nevada	7-6	0.8804	1.0333	0.5179	0.5
68	Oklahoma State	7-6	1.061	0.98616	0.4924	-0.2
69	Houston	8-5	0.6679	0.98092	0.4895	-0.3
70	San Diego State	7-6	0.719	0.96384	0.4798	-0.5
71	Kentucky	5-7	1.114	0.9555	0.4751	-0.7
72	California	5-7	1.136	0.90875	0.4478	-1.4
73	Michigan	5-7	1.108	0.88047	0.4308	-1.8
74	Northwestern	5-7	0.9881	0.87573	0.4279	-1.9
75	UAB	6-6	0.8803	0.8649	0.4212	-2.1
76	Temple	6-6	0.7607	0.84702	0.4101	-2.4
77	UTEP	7-6	0.8072	0.84442	0.4085	-2.4
78	Arkansas State	7-6	0.7093	0.84139	0.4066	-2.5
79	North Carolina	6-7	1.196	0.82277	0.3948	-2.8
80	Middle Tennessee	6-6	0.8762	0.75576	0.3513	-4.0
81	Oregon State	5-7	1.029	0.75071	0.3480	-4.1
82	Central Michigan	7-6	0.6372	0.74666	0.3453	-4.2
83	Texas State	7-5	0.6005	0.73441	0.3372	-4.4
84	Appalachian State	7-5	0.5735	0.73343	0.3365	-4.4
85	Illinois	6-7	1.064	0.72697	0.3322	-4.6
86	Fresno State	6-8	0.8806	0.69576	0.3112	-5.2
87	Bowling Green	8-6	0.7323	0.68081	0.3011	-5.5
88	South Alabama	6-7	0.7728	0.6687	0.2929	-5.8
89	Washington State	3-9	1.193	0.64275	0.2753	-6.3
90	Texas Tech	4-8	1.047	0.62281	0.2617	-6.8
91	Florida International	4-8	0.7047	0.61147	0.2540	-7.0
92	Old Dominion	6-6	0.7899	0.59361	0.2419	-7.5
93	Ball State	5-7	0.6217	0.59355	0.2419	-7.5
94	Indiana	4-8	0.9536	0.59236	0.2411	-7.5
95	Akron	5-7	0.6306	0.57316	0.2281	-8.0
96	Buffalo	5-6	0.5354	0.56878	0.2252	-8.1
97	Colorado	2-10	1.206	0.55557	0.2163	-8.4
98	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8	0.7718	0.54321	0.2081	-8.7
99	Purdue	3-9	0.9704	0.52609	0.1968	-9.2
100	Florida Atlantic	3-9	0.86	0.52485	0.1960	-9.2
101	New Mexico	4-8	0.8579	0.5199	0.1927	-9.4
102	UTSA	4-8	0.8388	0.51615	0.1903	-9.5
103	Ohio	6-6	0.6613	0.5158	0.1900	-9.5
104	Syracuse	3-9	1.033	0.49316	0.1754	-10.1
105	Wyoming	4-8	0.9002	0.48506	0.1702	-10.3
106	Kansas	3-9	1.003	0.48368	0.1693	-10.4
107	Massachusetts	3-9	0.6286	0.44762	0.1467	-11.5
108	Hawaii	4-9	0.7212	0.44393	0.1445	-11.6
109	Wake Forest	3-9	0.9466	0.43054	0.1364	-12.1
110	San Jose State	3-9	0.8043	0.41467	0.1270	-12.6
111	Tulane	3-9	0.8475	0.40592	0.1219	-12.9
112	Southern Miss	3-9	0.9135	0.40145	0.1193	-13.1
113	Army	4-8	0.617	0.40026	0.1186	-13.1
114	Iowa State	2-10	0.9939	0.39917	0.1180	-13.1
115	North Texas	4-8	0.646	0.39349	0.1148	-13.3
116	Vanderbilt	3-9	0.9607	0.38762	0.1115	-13.6
117	Kent State	2-9	0.7277	0.36469	0.0989	-14.4
118	Troy	3-9	0.6329	0.35453	0.0936	-14.8
119	South Florida	4-8	0.6975	0.3405	0.0863	-15.4
120	Miami (Ohio)	2-10	0.7057	0.31567	0.0741	-16.5
121	Tulsa	2-10	0.7698	0.29776	0.0658	-17.3
122	Connecticut	2-10	0.6698	0.25416	0.0474	-19.6
123	UNLV	2-11	0.7897	0.25221	0.0467	-19.7
124	Idaho	1-10	0.6889	0.23656	0.0408	-20.6
125	New Mexico State	2-10	0.5851	0.23477	0.0402	-20.7
126	Eastern Michigan	2-10	0.7488	0.21564	0.0336	-21.9
127	Georgia State	1-11	0.6939	0.20766	0.0310	-22.5
128	Southern Methodist	1-11	0.844	0.20677	0.0307	-22.5
129	1-AA	8-100	1.051	0.16227	0.0183	-26.0