Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2025

Updated through games of December 20

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.431
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.19/(R_A^2.19+R_B^2.19)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=13.1*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 4.7 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Texas Tech	12-1	1.304	7.7299	0.9888	26.8
2	Ohio State	12-1	1.391	7.0923	0.9865	25.7
3	Indiana	13-0	1.496	6.6617	0.9845	24.8
4	Notre Dame	10-2	1.272	5.0164	0.9716	21.1
5	Oregon	12-1	1.35	4.836	0.9693	20.6
6	Georgia	12-1	1.258	4.194	0.9585	18.8
7	Miami FL	11-2	1.292	3.9954	0.9541	18.1
8	Utah	10-2	1.196	3.6765	0.9454	17.1
9	Brigham Young	11-2	1.588	3.5256	0.9404	16.5
10	Mississippi	12-1	1.102	3.2384	0.9291	15.4
11	Vanderbilt	10-2	1.117	3.131	0.9241	15.0
12	Alabama	11-3	1.47	2.9003	0.9115	13.9
13	Texas A&M	11-2	1.283	2.8896	0.9108	13.9
14	James Madison	12-2	1.004	2.8656	0.9093	13.8
15	USC	9-3	1.283	2.7184	0.8994	13.1
16	Texas	9-3	1.339	2.3547	0.8671	11.2
17	Iowa	8-4	1.216	2.3391	0.8654	11.1
18	North Texas	11-2	0.8361	2.3063	0.8618	10.9
19	Oklahoma	10-3	1.262	2.2712	0.8577	10.7
20	Washington	9-4	1.123	2.1943	0.8483	10.3
21	Southern Methodist	8-4	1.024	2.1915	0.8479	10.3
22	Arizona	9-3	1.04	2.1733	0.8455	10.2
23	South Florida	9-4	1.014	2.161	0.8439	10.1
24	Old Dominion	10-3	0.9557	2.042	0.8269	9.4
25	Michigan	9-3	1.264	2.0217	0.8237	9.2
26	Louisville	8-4	1.047	1.9291	0.8083	8.6
27	Virginia	10-3	0.9496	1.8405	0.7918	8.0
28	Missouri	8-4	1.042	1.8276	0.7893	7.9
29	Penn State	6-6	1.21	1.8139	0.7865	7.8
30	Tennessee	8-4	1.037	1.789	0.7814	7.6
31	Tulane	11-3	1.057	1.7731	0.7780	7.5
32	Illinois	8-4	1.24	1.7721	0.7778	7.5
33	Pittsburgh	8-4	1.066	1.7566	0.7745	7.4
34	TCU	8-4	1.114	1.7228	0.7670	7.1
35	Toledo	8-4	0.7605	1.7198	0.7663	7.1
36	East Carolina	8-4	0.8914	1.554	0.7242	5.8
37	San Diego State	9-3	0.7461	1.5273	0.7166	5.5
38	Houston	9-3	0.9148	1.4937	0.7066	5.3
39	North Carolina State	8-5	1.168	1.4937	0.7066	5.3
40	Iowa State	8-4	1.07	1.4836	0.7035	5.2
41	LSU	7-5	1.266	1.4727	0.7001	5.1
42	Duke	8-5	1.072	1.4538	0.6941	4.9
43	Georgia Tech	9-3	0.9257	1.435	0.6880	4.7
44	Arizona State	8-4	1.195	1.4312	0.6868	4.7
45	Washington State	6-6	1.096	1.4281	0.6858	4.7
46	Boise State	9-5	1.002	1.4119	0.6804	4.5
47	Navy	10-2	0.88	1.3943	0.6743	4.4
48	Clemson	7-5	0.9219	1.3928	0.6738	4.3
49	Kansas State	6-6	1.086	1.3684	0.6653	4.1
50	Auburn	5-7	1.168	1.2908	0.6362	3.3
51	Kennesaw State	10-4	0.8574	1.2623	0.6248	3.1
52	Memphis	8-5	0.8399	1.2621	0.6248	3.0
53	Cincinnati	7-5	0.9716	1.232	0.6123	2.7
54	UNLV	10-3	0.7322	1.2282	0.6107	2.7
55	Wake Forest	8-4	0.8918	1.2215	0.6078	2.6
56	Western Michigan	10-4	0.7629	1.2188	0.6066	2.6
57	Florida State	5-7	1.047	1.1439	0.5731	1.8
58	Hawaii	8-4	0.7047	1.1338	0.5683	1.6
59	Connecticut	9-3	0.6063	1.1301	0.5666	1.6
60	Texas State	6-6	0.7948	1.0836	0.5438	1.1
61	Ohio	8-4	0.6777	1.0665	0.5352	0.8
62	Louisiana Tech	7-5	0.737	1.0626	0.5332	0.8
63	Western Kentucky	8-4	0.7231	1.0535	0.5285	0.7
64	Nebraska	7-5	0.9303	1.0349	0.5188	0.4
65	New Mexico	9-4	0.7281	1.0284	0.5153	0.4
66	Kansas	5-7	1.071	1.0097	0.5053	0.1
67	Kentucky	5-7	1.217	0.99399	0.4967	-0.1
68	UTSA	6-6	0.8655	0.97408	0.4856	-0.3
69	Utah State	6-6	0.8797	0.97114	0.4840	-0.4
70	Northwestern	6-6	1.033	0.96991	0.4833	-0.4
71	Minnesota	7-5	0.9241	0.95928	0.4773	-0.5
72	Mississippi State	5-7	1.157	0.95283	0.4736	-0.6
73	Florida	4-8	1.383	0.94771	0.4706	-0.7
74	South Carolina	4-8	1.174	0.94358	0.4682	-0.8
75	Fresno State	8-4	0.6928	0.93479	0.4631	-0.9
76	Miami OH	7-6	0.7356	0.90955	0.4483	-1.2
77	Rutgers	5-7	1.14	0.90279	0.4442	-1.3
78	Central Michigan	7-5	0.7029	0.89836	0.4416	-1.4
79	Arkansas	2-10	1.25	0.89589	0.4401	-1.4
80	Troy	8-6	0.8149	0.88331	0.4325	-1.6
81	Army	6-6	0.8228	0.84552	0.4091	-2.2
82	Marshall	5-7	0.8096	0.83955	0.4054	-2.3
83	Baylor	5-7	1.045	0.83908	0.4051	-2.3
84	Wisconsin	4-8	1.432	0.82425	0.3957	-2.5
85	Florida International	7-5	0.7107	0.82377	0.3954	-2.5
86	West Virginia	4-8	1.249	0.80999	0.3866	-2.8
87	Jacksonville State	9-5	0.6716	0.80665	0.3845	-2.8
88	Southern Miss	7-5	0.6749	0.8062	0.3842	-2.8
89	California	7-5	0.8499	0.80195	0.3815	-2.9
90	Missouri State	7-6	0.8032	0.74419	0.3437	-3.9
91	Central Florida	5-7	0.8863	0.74251	0.3425	-3.9
92	Coastal Carolina	6-6	0.8089	0.73536	0.3378	-4.0
93	Maryland	4-8	0.8944	0.72708	0.3323	-4.2
94	Colorado	3-9	1.199	0.6812	0.3014	-5.0
95	Stanford	4-8	1.185	0.67427	0.2967	-5.2
96	Arkansas State	7-6	0.7178	0.67079	0.2943	-5.2
97	Georgia Southern	6-6	0.824	0.66735	0.2920	-5.3
98	Michigan State	4-8	0.9841	0.66562	0.2908	-5.3
99	UCLA	3-9	1.383	0.64248	0.2751	-5.8
100	Temple	5-7	0.7721	0.63229	0.2682	-6.0
101	Air Force	4-8	0.7756	0.62389	0.2625	-6.2
102	Delaware	7-6	0.6432	0.61808	0.2585	-6.3
103	Louisiana	6-7	0.7346	0.61332	0.2553	-6.4
104	Liberty	4-8	0.7644	0.60036	0.2465	-6.7
105	North Carolina	4-8	0.8006	0.57836	0.2316	-7.2
106	Appalachian State	5-7	0.6438	0.56158	0.2203	-7.6
107	Florida Atlantic	4-8	0.8087	0.54521	0.2094	-7.9
108	South Alabama	4-8	0.7299	0.54268	0.2077	-8.0
109	Purdue	2-10	1.146	0.51248	0.1879	-8.8
110	New Mexico State	4-7	0.6838	0.50004	0.1798	-9.1
111	Virginia Tech	3-9	1.088	0.49256	0.1750	-9.3
112	Boston College	2-10	0.9269	0.48382	0.1694	-9.5
113	Buffalo	5-7	0.5619	0.47776	0.1655	-9.7
114	Wyoming	4-8	0.7018	0.47382	0.1630	-9.8
115	Rice	5-7	0.7226	0.45596	0.1519	-10.3
116	Bowling Green	4-8	0.606	0.43722	0.1404	-10.8
117	Tulsa	4-8	0.6556	0.431	0.1367	-11.0
118	Kent State	5-7	0.6333	0.42623	0.1338	-11.2
119	Akron	5-7	0.5352	0.42491	0.1330	-11.2
120	Eastern Michigan	4-8	0.6421	0.42387	0.1324	-11.2
121	Syracuse	3-9	0.9864	0.4232	0.1320	-11.3
122	Nevada	3-9	0.7645	0.41316	0.1261	-11.6
123	San Jose State	3-9	0.7551	0.41205	0.1255	-11.6
124	Alabama-Birmingham	4-8	0.7919	0.39229	0.1141	-12.3
125	Middle Tennessee	3-9	0.6503	0.36109	0.0970	-13.3
126	Louisiana-Monroe	3-9	0.7589	0.35895	0.0959	-13.4
127	Northern Illinois	3-9	0.6002	0.33894	0.0855	-14.2
128	Ball State	4-8	0.6647	0.33085	0.0815	-14.5
129	Oregon State	2-10	0.7528	0.33015	0.0811	-14.5
130	Colorado State	2-10	0.8037	0.33002	0.0811	-14.5
131	UTEP	2-10	0.6221	0.32253	0.0774	-14.8
132	Oklahoma State	1-11	0.8661	0.28961	0.0622	-16.2
133	Georgia State	1-11	0.8037	0.24728	0.0448	-18.3
134	Sam Houston	2-10	0.748	0.23391	0.0399	-19.0
135	Charlotte	1-11	0.6683	0.14457	0.0143	-25.3
136	Massachusetts	0-12	0.5172	0.095663	0.0058	-30.7
137	1-AA	4-122	1.136	0.095596	0.0058	-30.8