Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2015

Updated through games of January 11

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.314
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.32/(R_A^2.32+R_B^2.32)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.3*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 3.9 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Alabama	14-1	1.75	7.4324	0.9906	28.7
2	Ohio State	12-1	1.241	5.4454	0.9808	24.2
3	Clemson	14-1	1.442	4.7394	0.9737	22.2
4	Stanford	12-2	1.327	3.9123	0.9595	19.5
5	Oklahoma	11-2	1.389	3.8291	0.9575	19.2
6	Mississippi	10-3	1.426	3.3044	0.9412	17.1
7	Michigan State	12-2	1.506	3.1138	0.9331	16.2
8	Notre Dame	10-3	1.502	3.102	0.9325	16.2
9	Houston	13-1	0.8831	3.0547	0.9303	16.0
10	Michigan	10-3	1.271	3.0111	0.9281	15.8
11	Tennessee	9-4	1.259	2.7849	0.9150	14.6
12	Baylor	10-3	1.07	2.7533	0.9129	14.5
13	Navy	11-2	1.016	2.7511	0.9128	14.5
14	TCU	11-2	1.153	2.6666	0.9068	14.0
15	Toledo	10-2	1.01	2.6332	0.9043	13.8
16	LSU	9-3	1.459	2.5939	0.9013	13.6
17	Western Kentucky	12-2	0.8755	2.568	0.8992	13.5
18	Florida State	10-3	1.087	2.5457	0.8973	13.4
19	Iowa	12-2	1.087	2.5263	0.8957	13.3
20	Mississippi State	9-4	1.354	2.469	0.8906	12.9
21	North Carolina	11-3	0.9996	2.4183	0.8858	12.6
22	Arkansas	8-5	1.451	2.2179	0.8639	11.4
23	Utah	10-3	1.187	2.2174	0.8638	11.4
24	Oregon	9-4	1.292	2.1592	0.8564	11.0
25	Wisconsin	10-3	1.032	2.0577	0.8421	10.3
26	Bowling Green	10-4	1.044	2.0321	0.8382	10.1
27	USC	8-6	1.481	1.9525	0.8252	9.6
28	Oklahoma State	10-3	1.141	1.8949	0.8150	9.1
29	Georgia	10-3	1.07	1.8932	0.8147	9.1
30	Memphis	9-4	1.101	1.8412	0.8047	8.7
31	Temple	10-4	0.9979	1.8337	0.8033	8.7
32	Appalachian State	11-2	0.7406	1.8267	0.8018	8.6
33	Florida	10-4	1.308	1.8106	0.7985	8.5
34	Brigham Young	9-4	1.032	1.8084	0.7981	8.5
35	San Diego State	11-3	0.7045	1.7437	0.7841	8.0
36	Washington	7-6	1.209	1.6818	0.7696	7.4
37	Texas A&M	8-5	1.194	1.6646	0.7654	7.3
38	Georgia Southern	9-4	0.8146	1.6534	0.7625	7.2
39	Northwestern	10-3	1.176	1.6086	0.7508	6.8
40	California	8-5	1.298	1.5932	0.7466	6.7
41	Marshall	10-3	0.6832	1.5516	0.7348	6.3
42	Washington State	9-4	1.039	1.5465	0.7333	6.2
43	Boise State	9-4	0.7736	1.5436	0.7325	6.2
44	West Virginia	8-5	1.079	1.5387	0.7310	6.2
45	UCLA	8-5	1.176	1.5328	0.7293	6.1
46	Nebraska	6-7	1.156	1.4501	0.7031	5.3
47	Pittsburgh	8-5	1.184	1.4412	0.7001	5.2
48	Auburn	7-6	1.305	1.4378	0.6990	5.2
49	Western Michigan	8-5	1.091	1.4341	0.6977	5.2
50	South Florida	8-5	0.9653	1.4189	0.6925	5.0
51	Louisville	8-5	1.113	1.4147	0.6910	5.0
52	Miami FL	8-5	1.149	1.3401	0.6635	4.2
53	Penn State	7-6	1.211	1.3381	0.6628	4.2
54	Arkansas State	9-4	0.7511	1.329	0.6592	4.1
55	Louisiana Tech	9-4	0.7695	1.322	0.6565	4.0
56	Southern Miss	9-5	0.788	1.311	0.6521	3.9
57	Arizona State	6-7	1.152	1.2723	0.6362	3.4
58	North Carolina State	7-6	0.9934	1.2413	0.6228	3.1
59	Texas Tech	7-6	1.122	1.2344	0.6198	3.0
60	Northern Illinois	8-6	0.9197	1.2126	0.6100	2.8
61	Virginia Tech	7-6	0.9894	1.1993	0.6039	2.6
62	Ohio	8-5	0.8563	1.1729	0.5915	2.3
63	Central Michigan	7-6	0.8992	1.11	0.5602	1.5
64	Texas	5-7	1.23	1.0978	0.5539	1.3
65	Cincinnati	7-6	0.981	1.085	0.5472	1.2
66	Air Force	8-6	0.8297	1.0684	0.5383	0.9
67	Arizona	7-6	0.9832	1.0562	0.5317	0.8
68	Akron	8-5	0.7688	1.0158	0.5091	0.2
69	Minnesota	6-7	1.228	1.0011	0.5006	0.0
70	Duke	8-5	0.8251	0.99396	0.4965	-0.1
71	Indiana	6-7	1.045	0.97989	0.4882	-0.3
72	Kansas State	6-7	1.043	0.91945	0.4514	-1.2
73	Middle Tennessee	7-6	0.7939	0.90845	0.4445	-1.4
74	Utah State	6-7	0.8673	0.8888	0.4320	-1.7
75	East Carolina	5-7	0.8828	0.84837	0.4058	-2.4
76	Missouri	5-7	1.085	0.84252	0.4019	-2.5
77	Georgia Tech	3-9	1.113	0.80518	0.3769	-3.1
78	Illinois	5-7	1.083	0.79903	0.3727	-3.2
79	Vanderbilt	4-8	1.175	0.75336	0.3414	-4.0
80	Connecticut	6-7	0.881	0.72908	0.3245	-4.5
81	Colorado State	7-6	0.6551	0.72458	0.3214	-4.6
82	San Jose State	6-7	0.724	0.7231	0.3204	-4.6
83	Tulsa	6-7	0.8343	0.71091	0.3118	-4.9
84	Virginia	4-8	1.046	0.70401	0.3070	-5.0
85	Iowa State	3-9	1.166	0.70317	0.3064	-5.0
86	South Carolina	3-9	1.052	0.6968	0.3019	-5.2
87	Kentucky	5-7	0.8543	0.67542	0.2869	-5.6
88	Boston College	3-9	0.8888	0.65693	0.2739	-6.0
89	Buffalo	5-7	0.761	0.65503	0.2726	-6.0
90	Syracuse	4-8	1.025	0.65287	0.2711	-6.1
91	Georgia State	6-7	0.6629	0.64954	0.2687	-6.2
92	Nevada	7-6	0.6374	0.63997	0.2620	-6.4
93	Maryland	3-9	1.233	0.63877	0.2612	-6.4
94	Colorado	4-9	0.9358	0.62049	0.2484	-6.8
95	Rutgers	4-8	0.9514	0.61236	0.2427	-7.0
96	Troy	4-8	0.7482	0.61125	0.2420	-7.0
97	New Mexico	7-6	0.6428	0.58168	0.2215	-7.7
98	Wake Forest	3-9	0.9826	0.52358	0.1823	-9.3
99	Florida International	5-7	0.6274	0.50975	0.1732	-9.6
100	South Alabama	5-7	0.7662	0.47745	0.1525	-10.6
101	Purdue	2-10	1.058	0.46423	0.1443	-11.0
102	Massachusetts	3-9	0.7964	0.45924	0.1412	-11.1
103	Rice	5-7	0.6171	0.44995	0.1355	-11.4
104	Ball State	3-9	0.8582	0.44855	0.1347	-11.5
105	Florida Atlantic	3-9	0.7446	0.44355	0.1317	-11.6
106	Kent State	3-9	0.8353	0.44095	0.1301	-11.7
107	Miami OH	3-9	0.7534	0.41233	0.1135	-12.7
108	Oregon State	2-10	1.089	0.40806	0.1111	-12.8
109	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-8	0.6209	0.40563	0.1097	-12.9
110	UNLV	3-9	0.702	0.40483	0.1093	-12.9
111	UTSA	3-9	0.6609	0.38222	0.0970	-13.8
112	Old Dominion	5-7	0.6021	0.3702	0.0907	-14.2
113	Idaho	4-8	0.6999	0.3629	0.0869	-14.5
114	UTEP	5-7	0.5796	0.35357	0.0823	-14.9
115	Army	2-10	0.5492	0.35239	0.0817	-14.9
116	Fresno State	3-9	0.7648	0.35215	0.0816	-14.9
117	New Mexico State	3-9	0.6985	0.34753	0.0793	-15.1
118	Texas State	3-9	0.6479	0.33671	0.0741	-15.6
119	Southern Methodist	2-10	0.7796	0.30283	0.0589	-17.1
120	Tulane	3-9	0.68	0.30259	0.0588	-17.1
121	Hawaii	3-10	0.6592	0.27202	0.0465	-18.6
122	Louisiana-Monroe	2-11	0.6777	0.25812	0.0414	-19.4
123	Charlotte	2-10	0.6273	0.24289	0.0362	-20.2
124	Wyoming	2-10	0.6377	0.20987	0.0260	-22.3
125	Eastern Michigan	1-11	0.6675	0.20796	0.0255	-22.5
126	Kansas	0-12	0.9355	0.18776	0.0202	-23.9
127	Central Florida	0-12	0.7272	0.16957	0.0160	-25.4
128	North Texas	1-11	0.67	0.16164	0.0144	-26.1
129	1-AA	9-96	0.9656	0.12615	0.0081	-29.6