Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2019

Updated through games of January 13

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.362
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.34/(R_A^2.34+R_B^2.34)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.1*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 4.4 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	LSU	15-0	1.813	10.103	0.9956	32.6
2	Ohio State	13-1	1.715	9.6302	0.9950	31.9
3	Clemson	14-1	1.4	6.2062	0.9862	25.7
4	Alabama	11-2	1.311	5.7207	0.9834	24.6
5	Georgia	12-2	1.421	4.0662	0.9638	19.8
6	Penn State	11-2	1.435	3.8951	0.9601	19.2
7	Wisconsin	10-4	1.605	3.5721	0.9516	18.0
8	Notre Dame	11-2	1.262	3.445	0.9476	17.4
9	Oregon	12-2	1.231	3.4208	0.9467	17.3
10	Appalachian State	13-1	0.9056	3.4156	0.9466	17.3
11	Florida	11-2	1.281	3.4143	0.9465	17.3
12	Oklahoma	12-2	1.319	3.0794	0.9329	15.9
13	Central Florida	10-3	0.9795	2.9625	0.9270	15.3
14	Auburn	9-4	1.628	2.9411	0.9258	15.2
15	Memphis	12-2	1.15	2.9226	0.9248	15.1
16	Utah	11-3	1.103	2.8434	0.9202	14.7
17	Michigan	9-4	1.617	2.7327	0.9131	14.2
18	Navy	11-2	1.096	2.6121	0.9044	13.5
19	Air Force	11-2	0.9357	2.5574	0.9000	13.2
20	Iowa	10-3	1.243	2.5177	0.8967	13.0
21	Florida Atlantic	11-3	0.9759	2.4445	0.8901	12.6
22	Boise State	12-2	0.9099	2.3426	0.8799	12.0
23	Baylor	11-3	1.157	2.3263	0.8782	11.9
24	Louisiana-Lafayette	11-3	0.9434	2.2689	0.8718	11.6
25	Minnesota	11-2	1.054	2.2573	0.8705	11.5
26	Washington	8-5	1.105	2.247	0.8693	11.4
27	Cincinnati	11-3	1.218	2.201	0.8637	11.1
28	Southern Methodist	10-3	1.085	2.0009	0.8352	9.8
29	Texas	8-5	1.376	1.9354	0.8242	9.3
30	USC	8-5	1.316	1.7487	0.7871	7.9
31	Texas A&M	8-5	1.268	1.6658	0.7675	7.2
32	Oklahoma State	8-5	1.142	1.6246	0.7569	6.8
33	Iowa State	7-6	1.211	1.5944	0.7487	6.6
34	Kansas State	8-5	1.087	1.5691	0.7416	6.4
35	Virginia	9-5	1.081	1.55	0.7360	6.2
36	North Carolina	7-6	1.042	1.4652	0.7097	5.4
37	San Diego State	10-3	0.7181	1.4191	0.6940	4.9
38	Tulane	7-6	1.103	1.4053	0.6891	4.8
39	Indiana	8-5	1.003	1.3989	0.6869	4.7
40	Buffalo	8-5	0.7504	1.3427	0.6659	4.2
41	Wyoming	8-5	0.8191	1.3266	0.6595	4.0
42	Michigan State	7-6	1.182	1.298	0.6480	3.7
43	Arizona State	8-5	1.022	1.2799	0.6405	3.5
44	Kentucky	8-5	0.8805	1.274	0.6380	3.4
45	Tennessee	8-5	1.054	1.2537	0.6293	3.2
46	TCU	5-7	1.141	1.2322	0.6198	2.9
47	Virginia Tech	8-5	0.8324	1.2183	0.6135	2.8
48	Louisiana Tech	10-3	0.608	1.2167	0.6128	2.8
49	California	8-5	1.055	1.1948	0.6026	2.5
50	Louisville	8-5	1.088	1.1722	0.5919	2.2
51	Western Kentucky	9-4	0.7433	1.144	0.5781	1.9
52	Washington State	6-7	1.04	1.11	0.5607	1.5
53	Wake Forest	8-5	0.9095	1.0989	0.5549	1.3
54	Temple	8-5	0.9355	1.0869	0.5486	1.2
55	Mississippi State	6-7	1.232	1.0684	0.5386	0.9
56	Missouri	6-6	0.8917	1.0506	0.5288	0.7
57	Hawaii	10-5	0.8618	1.0474	0.5271	0.7
58	Miami FL	6-7	0.961	1.0432	0.5247	0.6
59	Florida State	6-7	1.061	1.0325	0.5187	0.5
60	Brigham Young	7-6	0.9456	1.0111	0.5064	0.2
61	Ohio	7-6	0.7272	0.99114	0.4948	-0.1
62	Oregon State	5-7	1.091	0.98344	0.4902	-0.2
63	Georgia Southern	7-6	0.9311	0.97336	0.4842	-0.4
64	Nebraska	5-7	1.075	0.97332	0.4842	-0.4
65	Marshall	8-5	0.8946	0.96889	0.4815	-0.4
66	Pittsburgh	8-5	0.9602	0.96105	0.4768	-0.6
67	Western Michigan	7-6	0.7458	0.95431	0.4727	-0.7
68	Arkansas State	8-5	0.8119	0.94439	0.4666	-0.8
69	Boston College	6-7	0.9534	0.93843	0.4629	-0.9
70	Duke	5-7	1.017	0.92628	0.4553	-1.1
71	Central Michigan	8-6	0.7211	0.91126	0.4459	-1.3
72	Utah State	7-6	0.9517	0.89864	0.4378	-1.5
73	Mississippi	4-8	1.034	0.89631	0.4363	-1.5
74	Southern Miss	7-6	0.8419	0.88687	0.4302	-1.7
75	South Carolina	4-8	1.342	0.88032	0.4260	-1.8
76	Texas Tech	4-8	0.9503	0.86875	0.4184	-2.0
77	Alabama-Birmingham	9-5	0.6636	0.86717	0.4174	-2.0
78	Tulsa	4-8	1.306	0.86203	0.4140	-2.1
79	Miami OH	8-6	0.9479	0.84773	0.4045	-2.3
80	Ball State	5-7	0.7886	0.82489	0.3893	-2.7
81	Houston	4-8	1.116	0.80155	0.3734	-3.1
82	Kent State	7-6	0.8229	0.79676	0.3701	-3.2
83	Louisiana-Monroe	5-7	0.915	0.7885	0.3645	-3.4
84	UCLA	4-8	1.191	0.7782	0.3574	-3.5
85	Georgia State	7-6	0.8097	0.7777	0.3570	-3.5
86	Illinois	6-7	0.8746	0.77688	0.3565	-3.6
87	Colorado	5-7	1.149	0.77171	0.3529	-3.7
88	Syracuse	5-7	0.8991	0.75869	0.3438	-3.9
89	Troy	5-7	0.735	0.7359	0.3279	-4.3
90	Army	5-8	0.7367	0.72714	0.3218	-4.5
91	Liberty	8-5	0.5573	0.72576	0.3208	-4.5
92	Fresno State	4-8	0.7987	0.70552	0.3066	-4.9
93	Purdue	4-8	1.022	0.70187	0.3040	-5.0
94	Stanford	4-8	1.165	0.69467	0.2989	-5.1
95	West Virginia	5-7	1.026	0.68283	0.2905	-5.4
96	Charlotte	7-6	0.7079	0.65458	0.2706	-6.0
97	Eastern Michigan	6-7	0.7231	0.65053	0.2677	-6.1
98	South Florida	4-8	0.9572	0.64938	0.2669	-6.1
99	San Jose State	5-7	0.7494	0.64209	0.2618	-6.2
100	Maryland	3-9	1.048	0.62131	0.2472	-6.7
101	Northwestern	3-9	1.005	0.62058	0.2467	-6.7
102	Middle Tennessee	4-8	0.7832	0.61772	0.2447	-6.8
103	Coastal Carolina	5-7	0.6952	0.61584	0.2434	-6.8
104	Florida International	6-7	0.6432	0.6107	0.2398	-7.0
105	Arizona	4-8	1.014	0.57059	0.2120	-7.9
106	Nevada	7-6	0.6884	0.56634	0.2091	-8.0
107	Toledo	6-6	0.7159	0.55664	0.2025	-8.3
108	Colorado State	4-8	0.7375	0.5332	0.1867	-8.9
109	Kansas	3-9	0.986	0.51788	0.1766	-9.3
110	Northern Illinois	5-7	0.7013	0.4995	0.1646	-9.8
111	North Texas	4-8	0.6467	0.49871	0.1641	-9.8
112	North Carolina State	4-8	0.7879	0.49014	0.1586	-10.1
113	Rice	3-9	0.7595	0.42334	0.1180	-12.1
114	UNLV	4-8	0.7431	0.4136	0.1125	-12.4
115	East Carolina	4-8	0.6545	0.40015	0.1050	-12.9
116	Arkansas	2-10	0.9318	0.39677	0.1031	-13.0
117	Georgia Tech	3-9	0.9027	0.39014	0.0995	-13.3
118	South Alabama	2-10	0.8833	0.37871	0.0935	-13.7
119	Texas State	3-9	0.8255	0.3543	0.0811	-14.6
120	Vanderbilt	3-9	0.8721	0.34501	0.0766	-15.0
121	UTSA	4-8	0.624	0.30064	0.0567	-16.9
122	Bowling Green	3-9	0.7109	0.29986	0.0563	-17.0
123	Rutgers	2-10	0.945	0.28805	0.0515	-17.5
124	New Mexico	2-10	0.726	0.25846	0.0405	-19.1
125	New Mexico State	2-10	0.6451	0.24504	0.0359	-19.8
126	Connecticut	2-10	0.6571	0.22669	0.0301	-20.9
127	Old Dominion	1-11	0.6653	0.22502	0.0296	-21.0
128	UTEP	1-11	0.5107	0.13387	0.0090	-28.4
129	1-AA	3-111	1.066	0.12243	0.0073	-29.6
130	Akron	0-12	0.6053	0.11609	0.0064	-30.4
131	Massachusetts	1-11	0.4126	0.077478	0.0025	-36.1