Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2024

Updated through games of December 7

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.362
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^1.96/(R_A^1.96+R_B^1.96)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=13.4*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 4.1 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Notre Dame	11-1	1.203	5.3862	0.9644	22.6
2	Ohio State	10-2	1.306	4.5622	0.9514	20.3
3	Oregon	13-0	1.188	4.5298	0.9508	20.2
4	Texas	11-2	1.214	3.7261	0.9294	17.6
5	Boise State	12-1	1.012	3.6109	0.9253	17.2
6	Indiana	11-1	0.8827	3.3788	0.9158	16.3
7	Southern Methodist	11-2	1.071	3.1679	0.9055	15.5
8	Georgia	11-2	1.427	3.1355	0.9038	15.3
9	Penn State	11-2	1.202	3.124	0.9031	15.3
10	Mississippi	9-3	1.074	3.1174	0.9028	15.2
11	Miami FL	10-2	1.112	3.0499	0.8989	14.9
12	Army	11-1	0.7917	2.8476	0.8861	14.0
13	Alabama	9-3	1.25	2.7253	0.8771	13.4
14	South Carolina	9-3	1.258	2.6272	0.8691	12.9
15	Tennessee	10-2	0.9572	2.5078	0.8584	12.3
16	Clemson	10-3	1.114	2.3934	0.8469	11.7
17	Louisville	8-4	1.328	2.3886	0.8464	11.7
18	Brigham Young	10-2	1.076	2.3512	0.8423	11.5
19	Arizona State	11-2	1.067	2.2046	0.8248	10.6
20	UNLV	10-3	0.9822	2.117	0.8131	10.0
21	Colorado	9-3	1.019	2.0951	0.8099	9.9
22	Virginia Tech	6-6	1.297	1.9459	0.7867	8.9
23	Iowa State	10-3	1.05	1.9378	0.7853	8.9
24	Iowa	8-4	1.004	1.9171	0.7817	8.7
25	Tulane	9-4	0.998	1.897	0.7781	8.6
26	Texas A&M	7-4	1.189	1.8645	0.7722	8.3
27	Marshall	10-3	0.9652	1.8166	0.7631	8.0
28	LSU	8-4	1.252	1.7828	0.7564	7.7
29	Baylor	8-4	1.069	1.7587	0.7515	7.6
30	Navy	8-3	0.8977	1.7515	0.7500	7.5
31	Kansas State	8-4	1.143	1.7485	0.7494	7.5
32	Memphis	10-2	0.7394	1.7204	0.7433	7.3
33	Syracuse	9-3	1.125	1.6951	0.7378	7.1
34	USC	6-6	1.274	1.6856	0.7356	7.0
35	Illinois	9-3	1.033	1.6552	0.7286	6.8
36	Minnesota	7-5	1.049	1.644	0.7260	6.7
37	Missouri	9-3	0.9776	1.5854	0.7116	6.2
38	Ohio	10-3	0.7298	1.5182	0.6939	5.6
39	Florida	7-5	1.21	1.5179	0.6938	5.6
40	Louisiana	10-3	0.7264	1.5008	0.6891	5.4
41	TCU	8-4	0.9654	1.4719	0.6808	5.2
42	Nebraska	6-6	1.103	1.456	0.6762	5.0
43	Kansas	5-7	1.324	1.4426	0.6722	4.9
44	Georgia Tech	7-5	1.256	1.4246	0.6668	4.7
45	Duke	9-3	0.9513	1.4132	0.6633	4.6
46	James Madison	8-4	0.7257	1.3511	0.6433	4.0
47	Michigan	7-5	1.332	1.3504	0.6431	4.0
48	Vanderbilt	6-6	1.154	1.2696	0.6149	3.2
49	Texas State	7-5	0.7444	1.2643	0.6129	3.1
50	Jacksonville State	9-4	0.685	1.2349	0.6019	2.8
51	Washington State	8-4	0.7494	1.2347	0.6019	2.8
52	Washington	6-6	1.184	1.2255	0.5983	2.7
53	Boston College	7-5	1.03	1.2218	0.5969	2.7
54	Oklahoma	6-6	1.252	1.2103	0.5925	2.6
55	Bowling Green	7-4	0.7233	1.1991	0.5881	2.4
56	Texas Tech	8-4	1.011	1.1791	0.5801	2.2
57	Georgia Southern	8-4	0.9595	1.1785	0.5798	2.2
58	Rutgers	7-5	0.9525	1.172	0.5772	2.1
59	Northern Illinois	7-5	0.7943	1.1329	0.5608	1.7
60	California	6-6	0.8663	1.1263	0.5580	1.6
61	Pittsburgh	7-5	0.9984	1.1198	0.5552	1.5
62	Arkansas	6-6	0.9994	1.0899	0.5421	1.2
63	Miami OH	8-5	0.8489	1.088	0.5412	1.1
64	Cincinnati	5-7	1.094	1.0702	0.5332	0.9
65	Utah	5-7	1.016	1.0631	0.5299	0.8
66	Western Kentucky	8-5	0.732	1.0201	0.5097	0.3
67	Liberty	8-3	0.5471	1.0135	0.5066	0.2
68	South Alabama	6-6	0.8041	1.0061	0.5030	0.1
69	Connecticut	8-4	0.6273	0.99507	0.4976	-0.1
70	UTSA	6-6	0.7897	0.99158	0.4959	-0.1
71	Old Dominion	5-7	1.061	0.98343	0.4918	-0.2
72	North Carolina	6-6	0.8521	0.97806	0.4891	-0.3
73	Colorado State	8-4	0.7022	0.97578	0.4880	-0.3
74	Sam Houston	9-3	0.7018	0.97486	0.4875	-0.3
75	Wisconsin	5-7	1.124	0.96294	0.4815	-0.5
76	East Carolina	7-5	0.7602	0.95931	0.4797	-0.6
77	North Carolina State	6-6	0.95	0.94587	0.4728	-0.7
78	Buffalo	8-4	0.693	0.93088	0.4650	-1.0
79	UCLA	5-7	1.459	0.9198	0.4591	-1.1
80	Auburn	5-7	0.9534	0.91716	0.4577	-1.2
81	Toledo	7-5	0.7296	0.90253	0.4499	-1.4
82	West Virginia	6-6	1.014	0.8913	0.4439	-1.5
83	San Jose State	7-5	0.7523	0.87274	0.4337	-1.8
84	Central Florida	4-8	1.056	0.83419	0.4121	-2.4
85	Fresno State	6-6	0.7512	0.82832	0.4087	-2.5
86	Kentucky	4-8	1.156	0.81767	0.4026	-2.7
87	South Florida	6-6	0.782	0.81187	0.3993	-2.8
88	North Texas	6-6	0.8123	0.80386	0.3946	-2.9
89	Coastal Carolina	6-6	0.8169	0.78713	0.3848	-3.2
90	Virginia	5-7	1.126	0.77041	0.3749	-3.5
91	Western Michigan	6-6	0.7623	0.73824	0.3555	-4.1
92	Appalachian State	5-6	0.9589	0.73114	0.3512	-4.2
93	Michigan State	5-7	1.027	0.71141	0.3391	-4.6
94	Houston	4-8	1.222	0.69119	0.3265	-4.9
95	Wake Forest	4-8	1.02	0.67184	0.3144	-5.3
96	Oregon State	5-7	0.833	0.64588	0.2980	-5.9
97	Stanford	3-9	1.193	0.62554	0.2851	-6.3
98	Maryland	4-8	1.04	0.62415	0.2842	-6.3
99	Arizona	4-8	0.9397	0.60952	0.2748	-6.6
100	Hawaii	5-7	0.6823	0.60136	0.2696	-6.8
101	Troy	4-8	0.774	0.60028	0.2689	-6.8
102	Northwestern	4-8	1.005	0.59707	0.2668	-6.9
103	Oklahoma State	3-9	0.9988	0.58453	0.2588	-7.2
104	Louisiana-Monroe	5-7	0.8081	0.58369	0.2582	-7.2
105	Rice	4-8	0.8765	0.56831	0.2483	-7.6
106	Arkansas State	7-5	0.6849	0.56496	0.2462	-7.7
107	Air Force	5-7	0.7465	0.54868	0.2357	-8.0
108	Eastern Michigan	5-7	0.6491	0.53734	0.2284	-8.3
109	Louisiana Tech	5-7	0.548	0.52863	0.2228	-8.5
110	Nevada	3-10	0.8829	0.52703	0.2218	-8.6
111	Florida International	4-8	0.5498	0.50851	0.2099	-9.1
112	Charlotte	5-7	0.8595	0.48814	0.1969	-9.6
113	Utah State	4-8	0.7478	0.48608	0.1956	-9.7
114	Akron	4-8	0.8364	0.47877	0.1910	-9.9
115	Alabama-Birmingham	3-9	0.7967	0.46605	0.1830	-10.2
116	New Mexico	5-7	0.6229	0.46542	0.1826	-10.2
117	Florida State	2-10	1.128	0.45839	0.1782	-10.5
118	Wyoming	3-9	0.7928	0.44665	0.1708	-10.8
119	Mississippi State	2-10	1.027	0.43392	0.1630	-11.2
120	Florida Atlantic	3-9	0.6671	0.42058	0.1548	-11.6
121	Central Michigan	4-8	0.7121	0.40817	0.1473	-12.0
122	Ball State	3-9	0.7888	0.40717	0.1467	-12.0
123	Georgia State	3-9	0.863	0.40439	0.1450	-12.1
124	Temple	3-9	0.8561	0.38174	0.1315	-12.9
125	Purdue	1-11	1.106	0.35396	0.1155	-13.9
126	San Diego State	3-9	0.6672	0.35384	0.1154	-13.9
127	UTEP	3-9	0.6021	0.31137	0.0922	-15.6
128	Massachusetts	2-10	0.6779	0.30293	0.0878	-16.0
129	New Mexico State	3-9	0.5978	0.27215	0.0724	-17.4
130	Tulsa	3-9	0.6308	0.2662	0.0695	-17.7
131	Middle Tennessee	3-9	0.5945	0.23313	0.0545	-19.5
132	Kennesaw State	2-10	0.6259	0.21187	0.0456	-20.8
133	Southern Miss	1-11	0.7446	0.18261	0.0345	-22.8
134	Kent State	0-12	0.6822	0.12822	0.0175	-27.5
135	1-AA	6-115	1.055	0.10879	0.0128	-29.7