Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2024

Updated through games of January 20

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.365
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.14/(R_A^2.14+R_B^2.14)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=13.4*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 4.2 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Ohio State	14-2	1.875	7.8538	0.9880	27.6
2	Notre Dame	14-2	1.66	5.734	0.9767	23.4
3	Oregon	13-1	1.497	4.4482	0.9606	20.0
4	Penn State	13-3	1.591	4.2905	0.9576	19.5
5	Texas	13-3	1.468	3.9406	0.9495	18.4
6	Mississippi	10-3	1.118	3.5272	0.9369	16.9
7	Indiana	11-2	1.14	3.5	0.9359	16.8
8	Boise State	12-2	1.075	3.0459	0.9156	14.9
9	Georgia	11-3	1.548	2.9232	0.9085	14.4
10	Miami FL	10-3	1.125	2.8349	0.9029	14.0
11	Southern Methodist	11-3	1.156	2.7526	0.8972	13.6
12	Brigham Young	11-2	1.104	2.6203	0.8871	12.9
13	South Carolina	9-4	1.305	2.4866	0.8754	12.2
14	Alabama	9-4	1.271	2.4722	0.8740	12.1
15	Army	12-2	0.8169	2.4568	0.8725	12.0
16	Tennessee	10-3	1.125	2.3895	0.8658	11.7
17	Louisville	9-4	1.261	2.2054	0.8446	10.6
18	UNLV	11-3	0.955	2.1515	0.8375	10.3
19	Clemson	10-4	1.154	2.1293	0.8344	10.1
20	Arizona State	11-3	1.156	2.1237	0.8337	10.1
21	LSU	9-4	1.332	2.0477	0.8226	9.6
22	Navy	10-3	0.9967	2.0323	0.8202	9.5
23	Iowa State	11-3	1.11	1.9914	0.8137	9.2
24	Iowa	8-5	1.107	1.9636	0.8091	9.0
25	Minnesota	8-5	1.16	1.9615	0.8087	9.0
26	USC	7-6	1.417	1.9134	0.8004	8.7
27	Illinois	10-3	1.182	1.9096	0.7997	8.7
28	Texas A&M	7-5	1.275	1.8601	0.7905	8.3
29	Colorado	9-4	1.055	1.8177	0.7822	8.0
30	Marshall	10-3	0.9556	1.7984	0.7783	7.9
31	Syracuse	10-3	1.09	1.7928	0.7772	7.8
32	Florida	8-5	1.27	1.7735	0.7731	7.7
33	Memphis	11-2	0.7559	1.7503	0.7681	7.5
34	Kansas State	9-4	1.132	1.7358	0.7650	7.4
35	Virginia Tech	6-7	1.288	1.6997	0.7568	7.1
36	Missouri	10-3	1.043	1.6898	0.7545	7.0
37	TCU	9-4	0.9726	1.6428	0.7431	6.7
38	Tulane	9-5	1.015	1.6416	0.7428	6.6
39	Ohio	11-3	0.7903	1.6171	0.7366	6.4
40	Michigan	8-5	1.505	1.6085	0.7344	6.4
41	Baylor	8-5	1.102	1.5894	0.7294	6.2
42	Nebraska	7-6	1.165	1.5833	0.7278	6.2
43	Kansas	5-7	1.334	1.4531	0.6899	5.0
44	James Madison	9-4	0.723	1.412	0.6766	4.6
45	Vanderbilt	7-6	1.164	1.3634	0.6600	4.2
46	Washington	6-7	1.29	1.3198	0.6442	3.7
47	Louisiana	10-4	0.7442	1.2932	0.6342	3.4
48	Texas State	8-5	0.7516	1.2585	0.6206	3.1
49	Georgia Tech	7-6	1.193	1.2533	0.6185	3.0
50	Miami OH	9-5	0.8806	1.2488	0.6167	3.0
51	Duke	9-4	0.977	1.2475	0.6161	3.0
52	Oklahoma	6-7	1.292	1.2394	0.6129	2.9
53	Arkansas	7-6	1.036	1.2368	0.6118	2.8
54	Rutgers	7-6	1.036	1.2232	0.6062	2.7
55	Northern Illinois	8-5	0.815	1.2199	0.6048	2.7
56	Jacksonville State	9-5	0.6912	1.1674	0.5821	2.1
57	Boston College	7-6	1.016	1.1393	0.5693	1.7
58	UTSA	7-6	0.8008	1.1227	0.5616	1.6
59	Connecticut	9-4	0.6551	1.1157	0.5583	1.5
60	Bowling Green	7-5	0.7357	1.0995	0.5506	1.3
61	Buffalo	9-4	0.7409	1.0964	0.5491	1.2
62	Georgia Southern	8-5	0.9415	1.0901	0.5460	1.2
63	Washington State	8-5	0.757	1.0789	0.5405	1.0
64	Cincinnati	5-7	1.088	1.0643	0.5333	0.8
65	Utah	5-7	1.013	1.0606	0.5314	0.8
66	South Alabama	7-6	0.8062	1.0586	0.5304	0.8
67	Texas Tech	8-5	0.9928	1.0428	0.5224	0.6
68	Pittsburgh	7-6	0.9519	1.0399	0.5209	0.5
69	California	6-7	0.8816	1.0335	0.5176	0.4
70	Wisconsin	5-7	1.182	1.0129	0.5069	0.2
71	East Carolina	8-5	0.7704	1.0036	0.5019	0.0
72	Sam Houston	10-3	0.7029	1.0023	0.5012	0.0
73	UCLA	5-7	1.537	0.96885	0.4831	-0.4
74	Old Dominion	5-7	1.04	0.96361	0.4802	-0.5
75	Toledo	8-5	0.768	0.9556	0.4757	-0.6
76	Western Kentucky	8-6	0.7292	0.92193	0.4566	-1.1
77	Auburn	5-7	0.9576	0.92123	0.4562	-1.1
78	West Virginia	6-7	1.045	0.88406	0.4345	-1.7
79	Liberty	8-4	0.5586	0.87208	0.4273	-1.8
80	North Carolina State	6-7	0.9109	0.86654	0.4240	-1.9
81	North Carolina	6-7	0.8345	0.86318	0.4219	-2.0
82	Central Florida	4-8	1.069	0.8446	0.4106	-2.3
83	Colorado State	8-5	0.6912	0.83221	0.4030	-2.5
84	South Florida	7-6	0.786	0.82983	0.4015	-2.5
85	Kentucky	4-8	1.17	0.82755	0.4001	-2.5
86	San Jose State	7-6	0.7187	0.81042	0.3894	-2.8
87	North Texas	6-7	0.8258	0.80225	0.3843	-3.0
88	Fresno State	6-7	0.7517	0.76924	0.3632	-3.5
89	Michigan State	5-7	1.083	0.75035	0.3510	-3.8
90	Western Michigan	6-7	0.7996	0.72963	0.3375	-4.2
91	Virginia	5-7	1.062	0.72695	0.3357	-4.3
92	Appalachian State	5-6	0.9362	0.71381	0.3271	-4.5
93	Houston	4-8	1.232	0.69658	0.3157	-4.8
94	Coastal Carolina	6-7	0.8042	0.68723	0.3095	-5.0
95	Maryland	4-8	1.094	0.65635	0.2888	-5.6
96	Wake Forest	4-8	0.9743	0.64151	0.2789	-5.9
97	Arkansas State	8-5	0.7212	0.64053	0.2782	-6.0
98	Northwestern	4-8	1.068	0.63463	0.2743	-6.1
99	Oregon State	5-7	0.7955	0.61679	0.2623	-6.5
100	Stanford	3-9	1.147	0.60158	0.2521	-6.8
101	Arizona	4-8	0.9263	0.60084	0.2516	-6.8
102	Troy	4-8	0.7645	0.59293	0.2463	-7.0
103	Louisiana-Monroe	5-7	0.8138	0.58786	0.2429	-7.1
104	Hawaii	5-7	0.664	0.58524	0.2411	-7.2
105	Oklahoma State	3-9	0.9942	0.58182	0.2388	-7.3
106	Rice	4-8	0.8951	0.58041	0.2379	-7.3
107	Eastern Michigan	5-7	0.6731	0.55725	0.2225	-7.8
108	Air Force	5-7	0.7173	0.52727	0.2027	-8.6
109	Nevada	3-10	0.8469	0.50556	0.1885	-9.1
110	Louisiana Tech	5-8	0.5771	0.49703	0.1830	-9.4
111	Florida International	4-8	0.5368	0.49652	0.1827	-9.4
112	Akron	4-8	0.8655	0.49545	0.1820	-9.4
113	Charlotte	5-7	0.862	0.48957	0.1782	-9.6
114	Alabama-Birmingham	3-9	0.8104	0.47407	0.1684	-10.0
115	Utah State	4-8	0.7266	0.47228	0.1672	-10.1
116	Mississippi State	2-10	1.063	0.44939	0.1529	-10.7
117	New Mexico	5-7	0.5983	0.44706	0.1515	-10.8
118	Florida State	2-10	1.08	0.43878	0.1464	-11.0
119	Wyoming	3-9	0.7623	0.42947	0.1408	-11.3
120	Florida Atlantic	3-9	0.6759	0.42616	0.1388	-11.4
121	Ball State	3-9	0.8122	0.41922	0.1347	-11.6
122	Central Michigan	4-8	0.725	0.41556	0.1325	-11.8
123	Georgia State	3-9	0.8599	0.40294	0.1251	-12.2
124	Temple	3-9	0.8546	0.38104	0.1126	-12.9
125	Purdue	1-11	1.166	0.37293	0.1080	-13.2
126	San Diego State	3-9	0.6445	0.34178	0.0913	-14.4
127	Massachusetts	2-10	0.6977	0.3118	0.0763	-15.6
128	UTEP	3-9	0.5801	0.29999	0.0707	-16.1
129	Tulsa	3-9	0.6389	0.26959	0.0570	-17.6
130	New Mexico State	3-9	0.5731	0.2609	0.0534	-18.0
131	Middle Tennessee	3-9	0.5687	0.22301	0.0387	-20.1
132	Kennesaw State	2-10	0.6024	0.20391	0.0322	-21.3
133	Southern Miss	1-11	0.7499	0.18391	0.0260	-22.7
134	Kent State	0-12	0.6982	0.13123	0.0128	-27.2
135	1-AA	6-115	1.05	0.10827	0.0085	-29.8