Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2016

Updated through games of January 9

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.322
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^1.99/(R_A^1.99+R_B^1.99)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=13.4*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 3.7 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Alabama	14-1	1.722	8.8961	0.9872	29.3
2	Clemson	14-1	1.608	5.2322	0.9642	22.2
3	Washington	12-2	1.307	4.391	0.9500	19.8
4	Michigan	10-3	1.268	3.9305	0.9384	18.3
5	Ohio State	11-2	1.561	3.8272	0.9353	18.0
6	Western Michigan	13-1	0.8519	3.3639	0.9179	16.3
7	USC	10-3	1.494	3.1628	0.9082	15.4
8	Oklahoma	11-2	1.202	3.0291	0.9007	14.9
9	Wisconsin	11-3	1.413	3.0134	0.8998	14.8
10	Penn State	11-3	1.325	3.0015	0.8991	14.7
11	Florida State	10-3	1.494	2.9415	0.8954	14.5
12	Miami FL	9-4	1.203	2.8255	0.8877	13.9
13	LSU	8-4	1.386	2.8163	0.8870	13.9
14	Western Kentucky	11-3	0.9129	2.5117	0.8621	12.3
15	Stanford	10-3	1.253	2.3554	0.8462	11.5
16	Louisville	9-4	1.141	2.3536	0.8460	11.5
17	Appalachian State	10-3	0.9838	2.2828	0.8379	11.1
18	Colorado	10-4	1.329	2.1937	0.8268	10.5
19	Florida	9-4	1.305	2.1202	0.8169	10.1
20	Oklahoma State	10-3	1.039	2.076	0.8106	9.8
21	Tennessee	9-4	1.241	2.0693	0.8096	9.7
22	South Florida	11-2	0.8412	2.0489	0.8065	9.6
23	Auburn	8-5	1.314	1.9558	0.7917	9.0
24	Toledo	9-4	0.9181	1.9379	0.7886	8.9
25	Boise State	10-3	0.9715	1.9127	0.7842	8.7
26	Tulsa	10-3	0.8527	1.862	0.7751	8.3
27	Virginia Tech	10-4	1.102	1.8613	0.7749	8.3
28	San Diego State	11-3	0.7715	1.8541	0.7736	8.3
29	Temple	10-4	0.8521	1.8421	0.7713	8.2
30	Texas A&M	8-5	1.141	1.7722	0.7574	7.7
31	Brigham Young	9-4	0.9177	1.7528	0.7534	7.5
32	Kansas State	9-4	1.064	1.746	0.7520	7.5
33	Minnesota	9-4	1.018	1.6913	0.7400	7.0
34	Washington State	8-5	1.103	1.6868	0.7389	7.0
35	Houston	9-4	0.9176	1.6643	0.7338	6.8
36	Troy	10-3	0.8269	1.6576	0.7322	6.8
37	West Virginia	10-3	1.03	1.6488	0.7301	6.7
38	Utah	9-4	1.046	1.6379	0.7275	6.6
39	Nebraska	9-4	1.112	1.637	0.7273	6.6
40	Pittsburgh	8-5	1.162	1.6291	0.7253	6.5
41	North Carolina	8-5	1.054	1.5884	0.7152	6.2
42	North Carolina State	7-6	1.161	1.5464	0.7042	5.8
43	Air Force	10-3	0.7751	1.5002	0.6915	5.4
44	Georgia Tech	9-4	1.081	1.4863	0.6875	5.3
45	Old Dominion	10-3	0.7558	1.4804	0.6858	5.3
46	Iowa	8-5	1.047	1.4571	0.6790	5.0
47	Northwestern	7-6	1.098	1.436	0.6726	4.8
48	Louisiana Tech	9-5	0.8473	1.4313	0.6712	4.8
49	Navy	9-5	0.9566	1.2808	0.6207	3.3
50	Colorado State	7-6	0.9665	1.2622	0.6138	3.1
51	Memphis	8-5	0.9275	1.2221	0.5985	2.7
52	Wyoming	8-6	0.9765	1.2086	0.5931	2.5
53	Georgia	8-5	1.004	1.2064	0.5923	2.5
54	Baylor	7-6	0.9401	1.1646	0.5752	2.0
55	Arkansas	7-6	1.148	1.0887	0.5422	1.1
56	Mississippi State	6-7	1.041	1.0575	0.5278	0.7
57	Notre Dame	4-8	1.073	1.0574	0.5278	0.7
58	Arkansas State	8-5	0.7317	1.0416	0.5203	0.5
59	Mississippi	5-7	1.223	1.0357	0.5175	0.5
60	Vanderbilt	6-7	1.112	1.0255	0.5125	0.3
61	New Mexico	9-4	0.721	1.0218	0.5107	0.3
62	TCU	6-7	0.9576	1.0193	0.5095	0.3
63	Idaho	9-4	0.8262	1.0144	0.5071	0.2
64	Kentucky	7-6	1.034	0.99421	0.4971	-0.1
65	Ohio	8-6	0.7485	0.98002	0.4900	-0.3
66	Boston College	7-6	0.9433	0.97141	0.4856	-0.4
67	Wake Forest	7-6	0.9822	0.96583	0.4827	-0.5
68	Central Florida	6-7	0.8656	0.95294	0.4760	-0.6
69	California	5-7	1.217	0.93284	0.4655	-0.9
70	Army	8-5	0.6752	0.93056	0.4643	-1.0
71	Texas Tech	5-7	0.9722	0.92366	0.4606	-1.1
72	UCLA	4-8	1.19	0.91984	0.4585	-1.1
73	Texas	5-7	0.9977	0.91339	0.4551	-1.2
74	Maryland	6-7	0.9681	0.88722	0.4407	-1.6
75	Indiana	6-7	1.002	0.87503	0.4340	-1.8
76	Southern Miss	7-6	0.7668	0.87331	0.4330	-1.8
77	Oregon	4-8	1.157	0.85714	0.4239	-2.1
78	Middle Tennessee	8-5	0.6916	0.85156	0.4207	-2.2
79	UTSA	6-7	0.7738	0.82431	0.4050	-2.6
80	Oregon State	4-8	1.103	0.78101	0.3795	-3.3
81	Eastern Michigan	7-6	0.8216	0.77434	0.3754	-3.4
82	Northern Illinois	5-7	0.838	0.75984	0.3667	-3.7
83	Southern Methodist	5-7	0.9348	0.72331	0.3442	-4.3
84	South Carolina	6-7	0.9555	0.71285	0.3377	-4.5
85	Michigan State	3-9	1.069	0.70091	0.3302	-4.8
86	Georgia Southern	5-7	0.8723	0.69732	0.3280	-4.8
87	Arizona State	5-7	1.04	0.68808	0.3221	-5.0
88	Duke	4-8	1.062	0.67634	0.3147	-5.2
89	Louisiana-Lafayette	6-7	0.7397	0.67241	0.3122	-5.3
90	Missouri	4-8	0.974	0.66838	0.3096	-5.4
91	Central Michigan	6-7	0.8264	0.66229	0.3058	-5.5
92	Miami OH	6-7	0.6908	0.66028	0.3045	-5.6
93	Utah State	3-9	0.9665	0.63508	0.2883	-6.1
94	Hawaii	7-7	0.7482	0.62671	0.2830	-6.3
95	Akron	5-7	0.7823	0.62484	0.2817	-6.3
96	Syracuse	4-8	1.098	0.58809	0.2580	-7.1
97	South Alabama	6-7	0.6933	0.57056	0.2466	-7.5
98	Iowa State	3-9	0.901	0.56477	0.2429	-7.7
99	Arizona	3-9	1.071	0.55869	0.2389	-7.8
100	Tulane	4-8	0.8112	0.55815	0.2386	-7.8
101	Ball State	4-8	0.7147	0.55493	0.2365	-7.9
102	North Texas	5-8	0.7498	0.49907	0.2005	-9.3
103	Cincinnati	4-8	0.7972	0.49689	0.1991	-9.4
104	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8	0.7945	0.47894	0.1877	-9.9
105	Bowling Green	4-8	0.7283	0.44954	0.1692	-10.7
106	Charlotte	4-8	0.6836	0.44825	0.1684	-10.8
107	Nevada	5-7	0.6089	0.44324	0.1653	-10.9
108	Kent State	3-9	0.6992	0.43943	0.1630	-11.0
109	Georgia State	3-9	0.7569	0.43817	0.1622	-11.1
110	UNLV	4-8	0.7302	0.43716	0.1616	-11.1
111	Illinois	3-9	0.9601	0.4367	0.1613	-11.1
112	San Jose State	4-8	0.7613	0.41915	0.1505	-11.7
113	Rutgers	2-10	1.003	0.41535	0.1482	-11.8
114	Virginia	2-10	0.9205	0.40784	0.1437	-12.0
115	Purdue	3-9	0.8561	0.39703	0.1373	-12.4
116	East Carolina	3-9	0.8367	0.39202	0.1343	-12.5
117	New Mexico State	3-9	0.8614	0.37931	0.1268	-13.0
118	UTEP	4-8	0.6043	0.37553	0.1247	-13.1
119	Florida Atlantic	3-9	0.6658	0.36823	0.1205	-13.4
120	Florida International	4-8	0.7054	0.36774	0.1202	-13.4
121	Marshall	3-9	0.7006	0.35254	0.1116	-14.0
122	Rice	3-9	0.7073	0.34654	0.1082	-14.2
123	Kansas	2-10	0.9326	0.34458	0.1071	-14.3
124	Massachusetts	2-10	0.8046	0.33665	0.1028	-14.6
125	Fresno State	1-11	0.778	0.31443	0.0909	-15.5
126	Connecticut	3-9	0.6806	0.29893	0.0829	-16.2
127	Buffalo	2-10	0.6324	0.2303	0.0511	-19.7
128	Texas State	2-10	0.7394	0.2243	0.0486	-20.0
129	1-AA	10-103	1.041	0.13724	0.0188	-26.6