Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2021

Updated through games of January 10

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.254
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.05/(R_A^2.05+R_B^2.05)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.7*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 3.3 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Georgia	14-1	1.572	7.9824	0.9861	30.5
2	Alabama	13-2	1.641	4.8049	0.9615	23.1
3	Cincinnati	13-1	1.113	4.3513	0.9532	21.6
4	Michigan	12-2	1.452	4.2351	0.9507	21.2
5	Ohio State	11-2	1.349	3.9133	0.9425	20.1
6	Notre Dame	11-2	1.165	2.9703	0.9031	16.0
7	Oklahoma State	12-2	1.294	2.9131	0.8995	15.7
8	Baylor	12-2	1.185	2.8378	0.8946	15.3
9	Utah	10-4	1.135	2.7335	0.8871	14.8
10	Pittsburgh	11-3	0.9951	2.6756	0.8826	14.5
11	Michigan State	11-2	1.305	2.6654	0.8818	14.4
12	Oklahoma	11-2	1.075	2.3289	0.8498	12.4
13	Clemson	10-3	1.215	2.3146	0.8482	12.3
14	Wake Forest	11-3	1.063	2.2521	0.8408	11.9
15	Houston	12-2	0.8575	2.2347	0.8387	11.8
16	Mississippi	10-3	1.243	2.2346	0.8387	11.8
17	Arkansas	9-4	1.298	2.217	0.8365	11.7
18	Wisconsin	9-4	1.294	2.1873	0.8326	11.5
19	North Carolina State	9-3	0.9879	2.1801	0.8317	11.5
20	Western Kentucky	9-5	0.9578	2.0896	0.8192	10.8
21	Air Force	10-3	0.9359	2.0113	0.8073	10.3
22	Boise State	7-5	1.249	2.0032	0.8060	10.2
23	Penn State	7-6	1.301	1.9976	0.8051	10.2
24	San Diego State	12-2	0.9265	1.8881	0.7863	9.3
25	Texas A&M	8-4	1.034	1.8856	0.7859	9.3
26	UTSA	12-2	0.8961	1.8805	0.7849	9.3
27	Brigham Young	10-3	1.026	1.8772	0.7843	9.3
28	Louisiana	13-1	0.7964	1.872	0.7834	9.2
29	Minnesota	9-4	1.048	1.8609	0.7813	9.1
30	Kentucky	10-3	0.9789	1.8389	0.7771	9.0
31	Appalachian State	10-4	0.9565	1.831	0.7756	8.9
32	Purdue	9-4	1.261	1.7954	0.7685	8.6
33	Iowa	10-4	1.187	1.7603	0.7612	8.3
34	Coastal Carolina	11-2	0.5997	1.7559	0.7603	8.3
35	Fresno State	10-3	0.8874	1.741	0.7571	8.2
36	UCLA	8-4	0.9136	1.6671	0.7403	7.5
37	Iowa State	7-6	1.162	1.6658	0.7400	7.5
38	Oregon	10-4	1.105	1.6463	0.7354	7.3
39	Alabama-Birmingham	9-4	0.9512	1.6031	0.7246	6.9
40	Army	9-4	0.9593	1.6022	0.7244	6.9
41	Southern Methodist	8-4	0.9097	1.5934	0.7221	6.8
42	Kansas State	8-5	1.048	1.5656	0.7148	6.6
43	Utah State	11-3	0.8803	1.5489	0.7103	6.4
44	Auburn	6-7	1.388	1.5361	0.7068	6.3
45	Tennessee	7-6	1.166	1.5288	0.7048	6.2
46	Nevada	8-5	0.9451	1.5123	0.7001	6.1
47	Liberty	8-5	0.8606	1.439	0.6783	5.4
48	Mississippi State	7-6	1.158	1.3692	0.6557	4.6
49	Arizona State	8-5	0.9005	1.368	0.6553	4.6
50	Marshall	7-6	0.8714	1.2878	0.6268	3.7
51	Louisville	6-7	1.095	1.2613	0.6168	3.4
52	Central Florida	9-4	0.8501	1.256	0.6147	3.4
53	Miami OH	7-6	0.8281	1.2434	0.6098	3.2
54	Washington State	7-6	0.9426	1.2233	0.6019	3.0
55	Miami FL	7-5	1.071	1.2177	0.5996	2.9
56	Oregon State	7-6	0.9542	1.2042	0.5941	2.7
57	Florida	6-7	1.031	1.1774	0.5829	2.4
58	Toledo	7-6	0.6979	1.1741	0.5815	2.4
59	Texas	5-7	1.229	1.1709	0.5801	2.3
60	Central Michigan	9-4	0.7887	1.1686	0.5792	2.3
61	Western Michigan	8-5	0.8844	1.1675	0.5787	2.3
62	LSU	6-7	1.262	1.1539	0.5728	2.1
63	Texas Tech	7-6	1.072	1.1457	0.5693	2.0
64	Nebraska	3-9	1.277	1.1206	0.5581	1.7
65	Georgia State	8-5	0.8676	1.0663	0.5328	0.9
66	East Carolina	7-5	0.9357	1.0474	0.5237	0.7
67	West Virginia	6-7	1.102	1.0058	0.5030	0.1
68	Maryland	7-6	1.105	0.99064	0.4952	-0.1
69	North Carolina	6-7	0.9999	0.98437	0.4919	-0.2
70	South Carolina	7-6	1.051	0.98221	0.4908	-0.3
71	Tulsa	7-6	0.945	0.9763	0.4877	-0.4
72	Illinois	5-7	1.099	0.94373	0.4704	-0.9
73	Syracuse	5-7	1.024	0.91841	0.4565	-1.3
74	Virginia	6-6	1.013	0.89727	0.4447	-1.6
75	Boston College	6-6	0.8296	0.89604	0.4440	-1.6
76	Memphis	6-6	0.845	0.87319	0.4309	-2.0
77	Northern Illinois	9-5	0.8239	0.87301	0.4308	-2.0
78	Middle Tennessee	7-6	0.7484	0.86116	0.4240	-2.2
79	Virginia Tech	6-7	0.9063	0.86079	0.4238	-2.2
80	Florida State	5-7	1.009	0.85178	0.4185	-2.4
81	Missouri	6-7	1.042	0.85051	0.4178	-2.4
82	UTEP	7-6	0.7289	0.8387	0.4108	-2.6
83	California	5-7	0.8001	0.83301	0.4074	-2.7
84	Wyoming	7-6	0.7552	0.77269	0.3708	-3.8
85	Ball State	6-7	0.8514	0.75484	0.3597	-4.1
86	Navy	4-8	1.248	0.74932	0.3563	-4.2
87	Old Dominion	6-7	0.7651	0.73322	0.3461	-4.6
88	Rutgers	5-8	1.053	0.71995	0.3377	-4.8
89	Eastern Michigan	7-6	0.7375	0.70544	0.3284	-5.1
90	North Texas	6-7	0.7973	0.70352	0.3272	-5.2
91	TCU	5-7	1.044	0.69582	0.3222	-5.3
92	Hawaii	6-7	0.7957	0.68566	0.3157	-5.5
93	USC	4-8	0.9859	0.68373	0.3144	-5.6
94	South Alabama	5-7	0.6879	0.66064	0.2995	-6.1
95	Georgia Tech	3-9	1.023	0.65054	0.2929	-6.3
96	Washington	4-8	0.8074	0.62299	0.2749	-7.0
97	Florida Atlantic	5-7	0.7804	0.61143	0.2673	-7.2
98	Tulane	2-10	1.124	0.58508	0.2500	-7.9
99	Kent State	7-7	0.7739	0.58266	0.2484	-7.9
100	Colorado State	3-9	0.8282	0.57006	0.2401	-8.3
101	Troy	5-7	0.7711	0.55197	0.2282	-8.7
102	San Jose State	5-7	0.7963	0.55138	0.2279	-8.8
103	Stanford	3-9	1.072	0.54621	0.2245	-8.9
104	Louisiana Tech	3-9	0.8073	0.51357	0.2033	-9.8
105	Colorado	4-8	0.9062	0.50051	0.1948	-10.2
106	Indiana	2-10	1.354	0.49228	0.1896	-10.4
107	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8	0.8314	0.49077	0.1886	-10.5
108	UNLV	2-10	0.9619	0.48923	0.1876	-10.5
109	Northwestern	3-9	0.951	0.48657	0.1859	-10.6
110	South Florida	2-10	0.9856	0.46635	0.1731	-11.2
111	Rice	4-8	0.8564	0.45978	0.1690	-11.4
112	Buffalo	4-8	0.6936	0.45158	0.1639	-11.7
113	Bowling Green	4-8	0.6904	0.43337	0.1526	-12.3
114	Charlotte	5-7	0.6488	0.42317	0.1464	-12.6
115	Ohio	3-9	0.6788	0.41137	0.1393	-13.1
116	Georgia Southern	3-9	0.8154	0.404	0.1349	-13.3
117	Texas State	4-8	0.6504	0.36854	0.1144	-14.7
118	Southern Miss	3-9	0.6944	0.3683	0.1143	-14.7
119	Duke	3-9	0.7348	0.36366	0.1117	-14.9
120	Arkansas State	2-10	0.7489	0.35616	0.1075	-15.2
121	New Mexico	3-9	0.8156	0.34068	0.0991	-15.8
122	Arizona	1-11	0.9155	0.31439	0.0853	-17.0
123	Kansas	2-10	0.9845	0.30698	0.0816	-17.4
124	Temple	3-9	0.7673	0.29647	0.0764	-17.9
125	Akron	2-10	0.6498	0.25358	0.0566	-20.2
126	New Mexico State	2-10	0.7015	0.25193	0.0559	-20.3
127	Vanderbilt	2-10	0.7652	0.24655	0.0536	-20.6
128	Florida International	1-11	0.6463	0.19287	0.0331	-24.2
129	Connecticut	1-11	0.5864	0.17097	0.0261	-26.0
130	1-AA	12-105	0.9422	0.15693	0.0220	-27.2
131	Massachusetts	1-11	0.5304	0.12499	0.0139	-30.6