Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2022

Updated through games of January 9

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.284
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^2.07/(R_A^2.07+R_B^2.07)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.5*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 3.6 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Georgia	15-0	1.551	8.4165	0.9880	30.9
2	Michigan	13-1	1.238	5.3505	0.9699	24.3
3	Ohio State	11-2	1.434	5.0556	0.9662	23.5
4	Alabama	11-2	1.344	4.2261	0.9518	20.9
5	Tennessee	11-2	1.424	3.7259	0.9384	19.1
6	Penn State	11-2	1.261	3.6145	0.9346	18.6
7	TCU	13-2	1.517	3.4106	0.9269	17.8
8	USC	11-3	1.204	2.6791	0.8849	14.3
9	Clemson	11-3	1.15	2.6566	0.8831	14.2
10	Utah	10-4	1.209	2.6085	0.8792	13.9
11	Tulane	12-2	1.054	2.5989	0.8784	13.8
12	Kansas State	10-4	1.455	2.5087	0.8703	13.3
13	Texas	8-5	1.417	2.5013	0.8696	13.3
14	Oregon	10-3	1.205	2.4595	0.8656	13.0
15	Florida State	10-3	1.105	2.3519	0.8545	12.4
16	Oregon State	10-3	1.109	2.342	0.8534	12.3
17	LSU	10-4	1.382	2.2956	0.8482	12.0
18	Washington	11-2	0.9654	2.27	0.8451	11.9
19	Notre Dame	9-4	1.197	2.092	0.8217	10.7
20	Mississippi State	9-4	1.315	2.0536	0.8160	10.4
21	Troy	12-2	0.9418	1.9482	0.7991	9.7
22	Louisville	8-5	1.202	1.9456	0.7986	9.7
23	UCLA	9-4	0.9576	1.7845	0.7683	8.4
24	UTSA	11-3	0.8934	1.7519	0.7614	8.1
25	Illinois	8-5	0.9622	1.7476	0.7605	8.1
26	Wake Forest	8-5	1.109	1.7313	0.7570	8.0
27	Duke	9-4	0.8185	1.7178	0.7540	7.8
28	Minnesota	9-4	0.886	1.6622	0.7411	7.4
29	Fresno State	10-4	0.8513	1.6394	0.7356	7.2
30	South Alabama	10-3	0.7865	1.604	0.7267	6.9
31	Iowa	8-5	1.056	1.5847	0.7217	6.7
32	Oklahoma	6-7	1.24	1.5616	0.7156	6.5
33	Arkansas	7-6	1.198	1.5459	0.7113	6.3
34	Air Force	10-3	0.634	1.5433	0.7106	6.3
35	Mississippi	8-5	1.14	1.542	0.7102	6.3
36	Central Florida	9-5	1.045	1.5345	0.7081	6.2
37	South Carolina	8-5	1.22	1.5073	0.7004	5.9
38	Pittsburgh	9-4	0.9591	1.5053	0.6999	5.9
39	Cincinnati	9-4	0.9201	1.4884	0.6949	5.8
40	James Madison	8-3	0.7994	1.4609	0.6867	5.5
41	Memphis	7-6	0.9278	1.4486	0.6829	5.4
42	Maryland	8-5	1.077	1.4209	0.6742	5.1
43	Marshall	9-4	0.8358	1.4042	0.6688	4.9
44	Texas Tech	8-5	1.226	1.3948	0.6657	4.8
45	Boise State	10-4	0.7895	1.3893	0.6639	4.8
46	Kentucky	7-6	1.169	1.3539	0.6519	4.4
47	Southern Methodist	7-6	1.079	1.3525	0.6514	4.4
48	North Carolina	9-5	1.066	1.3488	0.6501	4.3
49	East Carolina	8-5	0.8997	1.315	0.6380	4.0
50	Houston	8-5	1.034	1.2925	0.6298	3.7
51	Western Kentucky	9-5	0.8031	1.2826	0.6260	3.6
52	Baylor	6-7	1.196	1.2735	0.6226	3.5
53	North Carolina State	8-5	1.071	1.2474	0.6124	3.2
54	Oklahoma State	7-6	1.088	1.2465	0.6121	3.2
55	Kansas	6-7	1.292	1.2285	0.6049	3.0
56	Syracuse	7-6	1.099	1.1868	0.5877	2.5
57	Purdue	8-6	1.154	1.1748	0.5826	2.3
58	Florida	6-7	1.286	1.1689	0.5801	2.3
59	Missouri	6-7	1.161	1.1652	0.5785	2.2
60	Washington State	7-6	1.024	1.1524	0.5729	2.1
61	Wisconsin	7-6	0.9906	1.1408	0.5677	1.9
62	Ohio	10-4	0.7333	1.1344	0.5649	1.8
63	Iowa State	4-8	1.207	1.1327	0.5641	1.8
64	Toledo	9-5	0.7245	1.1175	0.5573	1.6
65	Alabama-Birmingham	7-6	0.8133	1.1125	0.5550	1.5
66	Brigham Young	8-5	0.9341	1.0942	0.5465	1.3
67	Texas A&M	5-7	1.031	1.0607	0.5304	0.9
68	Liberty	8-5	0.7414	1.0281	0.5143	0.4
69	Louisiana	6-7	0.8747	1.0277	0.5142	0.4
70	Appalachian State	6-6	0.7985	1.0232	0.5119	0.3
71	North Texas	7-7	0.876	0.97626	0.4876	-0.3
72	Auburn	5-7	1.294	0.95037	0.4737	-0.7
73	Army	6-6	0.7487	0.94679	0.4717	-0.8
74	Coastal Carolina	9-4	0.8381	0.93979	0.4679	-0.9
75	Michigan State	5-7	1.179	0.84658	0.4147	-2.4
76	Eastern Michigan	9-4	0.6128	0.83009	0.4048	-2.7
77	San Jose State	7-5	0.6225	0.82859	0.4039	-2.7
78	West Virginia	5-7	1.183	0.81772	0.3973	-2.9
79	Southern Miss	7-6	0.8289	0.8131	0.3945	-3.0
80	Middle Tennessee	8-5	0.7143	0.80247	0.3880	-3.2
81	Georgia State	4-8	0.8853	0.78682	0.3784	-3.5
82	Vanderbilt	5-7	1.131	0.78328	0.3762	-3.5
83	Florida Atlantic	5-7	0.7621	0.7828	0.3759	-3.6
84	San Diego State	7-6	0.741	0.78006	0.3742	-3.6
85	Georgia Southern	6-7	0.8545	0.75952	0.3614	-4.0
86	Navy	4-8	1.009	0.75575	0.3590	-4.1
87	Buffalo	7-6	0.6957	0.72573	0.3399	-4.6
88	Wyoming	7-6	0.7453	0.69528	0.3203	-5.3
89	Miami FL	5-7	0.9098	0.69493	0.3201	-5.3
90	California	4-8	0.9534	0.68825	0.3158	-5.4
91	Kent State	5-7	0.875	0.68772	0.3154	-5.4
92	Nebraska	4-8	0.8899	0.67994	0.3103	-5.6
93	Arizona	5-7	0.9842	0.66375	0.2998	-5.9
94	Tulsa	5-7	0.8448	0.65502	0.2941	-6.1
95	Connecticut	6-7	0.7727	0.62983	0.2775	-6.7
96	UNLV	5-7	0.7025	0.62244	0.2726	-6.9
97	Georgia Tech	5-7	1.091	0.60385	0.2603	-7.3
98	Indiana	4-8	1.108	0.59577	0.2550	-7.5
99	Rice	5-8	0.8208	0.58446	0.2475	-7.8
100	Ball State	5-7	0.7181	0.58301	0.2466	-7.8
101	Virginia	3-7	0.8833	0.57802	0.2433	-7.9
102	New Mexico State	7-6	0.5273	0.57359	0.2404	-8.1
103	Miami OH	6-7	0.673	0.56918	0.2375	-8.2
104	Arizona State	3-9	0.9687	0.56798	0.2367	-8.2
105	UTEP	5-7	0.7115	0.56039	0.2317	-8.4
106	Virginia Tech	3-8	0.8021	0.55146	0.2258	-8.6
107	Stanford	3-9	1.14	0.5344	0.2147	-9.1
108	Rutgers	4-8	0.9845	0.52153	0.2063	-9.4
109	Texas State	4-8	0.7315	0.51804	0.2040	-9.5
110	Bowling Green	6-7	0.7393	0.50482	0.1955	-9.9
111	Utah State	6-7	0.7194	0.50007	0.1924	-10.0
112	Central Michigan	4-8	0.7177	0.48999	0.1859	-10.3
113	Western Michigan	5-7	0.7032	0.48939	0.1855	-10.4
114	Old Dominion	3-9	0.9118	0.48893	0.1853	-10.4
115	Temple	3-9	0.7335	0.48307	0.1815	-10.6
116	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8	0.915	0.47499	0.1764	-10.8
117	Boston College	3-9	1.001	0.46203	0.1682	-11.2
118	Arkansas State	3-9	0.7953	0.45873	0.1662	-11.3
119	Louisiana Tech	3-9	0.7688	0.4473	0.1590	-11.7
120	Northern Illinois	3-9	0.6597	0.39647	0.1284	-13.4
121	Akron	2-10	0.7128	0.37904	0.1184	-14.1
122	South Florida	1-11	0.9688	0.36112	0.1083	-14.8
123	Northwestern	1-11	1.026	0.34887	0.1016	-15.3
124	Hawaii	3-10	0.6554	0.33495	0.0941	-15.9
125	Florida International	4-8	0.642	0.32844	0.0907	-16.1
126	Colorado State	3-9	0.6344	0.3069	0.0798	-17.1
127	Nevada	2-10	0.6758	0.29871	0.0758	-17.5
128	Charlotte	3-9	0.6809	0.2843	0.0689	-18.2
129	Colorado	1-11	1.312	0.26971	0.0622	-19.0
130	New Mexico	2-10	0.6951	0.26034	0.0581	-19.5
131	Massachusetts	1-11	0.7149	0.21938	0.0415	-22.0
132	1-AA	8-112	1.065	0.13303	0.0151	-29.2