Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2018

Updated through games of January 7

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.342
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^1.95/(R_A^1.95+R_B^1.95)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.1*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 4.1 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Clemson	15-0	1.632	10.439	0.9898	33.1
2	Alabama	14-1	1.723	8.5971	0.9852	30.3
3	Georgia	11-3	1.577	4.6232	0.9519	21.6
4	Notre Dame	12-1	1.384	3.9378	0.9354	19.3
5	Central Florida	12-1	0.9011	3.5505	0.9221	17.9
6	Ohio State	13-1	1.204	3.4476	0.9178	17.5
7	Oklahoma	12-2	1.324	3.3405	0.9131	17.0
8	LSU	10-3	1.508	3.2437	0.9084	16.6
9	Fresno State	12-2	0.9241	3.0503	0.8980	15.7
10	Michigan	10-3	1.32	2.9577	0.8923	15.3
11	Appalachian State	11-2	0.9011	2.873	0.8868	14.9
12	Syracuse	10-3	1.2	2.7972	0.8814	14.5
13	Utah State	11-2	0.81	2.5963	0.8653	13.5
14	Florida	10-3	1.255	2.5211	0.8585	13.0
15	Washington	10-4	1.226	2.5211	0.8585	13.0
16	Texas A&M	9-4	1.536	2.4931	0.8559	12.9
17	Penn State	9-4	1.27	2.4827	0.8549	12.8
18	Mississippi State	8-5	1.393	2.3029	0.8357	11.8
19	Washington State	11-2	0.9444	2.2936	0.8346	11.7
20	Boise State	10-3	1.089	2.2824	0.8333	11.6
21	Missouri	8-5	1.346	2.2685	0.8316	11.5
22	Kentucky	10-3	1.264	2.2666	0.8314	11.5
23	Iowa	9-4	1.094	2.1946	0.8224	11.1
24	Texas	10-4	1.256	2.0672	0.8047	10.2
25	Cincinnati	11-2	0.8459	2.0535	0.8027	10.1
26	Army	11-2	0.8592	1.9764	0.7906	9.6
27	West Virginia	8-4	1.112	1.9704	0.7896	9.6
28	Auburn	8-5	1.33	1.9461	0.7856	9.4
29	Utah	9-5	1.167	1.9154	0.7803	9.2
30	Stanford	9-4	1.159	1.7994	0.7587	8.3
31	North Carolina State	9-4	1.002	1.6915	0.7359	7.4
32	Troy	10-3	0.8701	1.6593	0.7286	7.1
33	Ohio	9-4	0.7758	1.6457	0.7254	7.0
34	Virginia	8-5	0.9363	1.58	0.7093	6.5
35	Wisconsin	8-5	1.078	1.5471	0.7008	6.2
36	Duke	8-5	1.192	1.54	0.6989	6.1
37	Pittsburgh	7-7	1.464	1.5366	0.6980	6.1
38	Georgia Southern	10-3	0.8288	1.5127	0.6915	5.8
39	Northwestern	9-5	1.272	1.5036	0.6890	5.8
40	Iowa State	8-5	1.08	1.4687	0.6791	5.4
41	Buffalo	10-4	0.7847	1.4675	0.6787	5.4
42	Alabama-Birmingham	11-3	0.7618	1.4507	0.6738	5.2
43	Boston College	7-5	1.063	1.4423	0.6713	5.2
44	Purdue	6-7	1.276	1.4128	0.6624	4.9
45	Michigan State	7-6	1.202	1.4071	0.6606	4.8
46	Oregon	9-4	0.903	1.3642	0.6469	4.4
47	Miami FL	7-6	1.07	1.3577	0.6448	4.3
48	South Carolina	7-6	1.286	1.3516	0.6428	4.2
49	Memphis	8-6	0.8032	1.3373	0.6380	4.1
50	Oklahoma State	7-6	1.069	1.3054	0.6271	3.8
51	Brigham Young	7-6	0.9768	1.2963	0.6239	3.7
52	Temple	8-5	0.8847	1.2919	0.6223	3.6
53	Arkansas State	8-5	0.8056	1.274	0.6159	3.4
54	Marshall	9-4	0.7601	1.2297	0.5995	2.9
55	Middle Tennessee	8-6	0.9802	1.2239	0.5972	2.8
56	Minnesota	7-6	1.133	1.2142	0.5935	2.7
57	Vanderbilt	6-7	1.16	1.1916	0.5847	2.5
58	North Texas	9-4	0.6561	1.1788	0.5795	2.3
59	Arizona State	7-6	1.065	1.1772	0.5789	2.3
60	Georgia Tech	7-6	1.02	1.0848	0.5396	1.1
61	Houston	8-5	0.7289	1.0818	0.5382	1.1
62	Wake Forest	7-6	1.101	1.056	0.5265	0.8
63	Miami OH	6-6	0.8956	1.0407	0.5194	0.6
64	Maryland	5-7	1.127	1.0323	0.5155	0.4
65	Florida International	9-4	0.6476	1.0299	0.5144	0.4
66	Toledo	7-6	0.7389	1.0278	0.5134	0.4
67	TCU	7-6	1.049	1.0089	0.5043	0.1
68	Eastern Michigan	7-6	0.769	1.0033	0.5016	0.0
69	USC	5-7	1.084	0.97746	0.4889	-0.3
70	Nebraska	4-8	1.129	0.97036	0.4853	-0.4
71	Baylor	7-6	0.9893	0.9603	0.4803	-0.6
72	Texas Tech	5-7	1.019	0.95713	0.4787	-0.6
73	Florida Atlantic	5-7	0.9201	0.94515	0.4725	-0.8
74	Tulane	7-6	0.8601	0.92527	0.4622	-1.1
75	Air Force	5-7	0.8183	0.91106	0.4547	-1.3
76	Kansas State	5-7	0.993	0.90811	0.4531	-1.4
77	Tennessee	5-7	1.202	0.90374	0.4508	-1.4
78	Mississippi	5-7	1.057	0.89581	0.4466	-1.6
79	Arizona	5-7	0.8766	0.8948	0.4460	-1.6
80	California	7-6	0.8896	0.88386	0.4401	-1.7
81	Nevada	8-5	0.7836	0.88276	0.4395	-1.8
82	Louisiana Tech	8-5	0.7351	0.88265	0.4394	-1.8
83	Louisiana-Lafayette	7-7	0.9027	0.87632	0.4360	-1.9
84	Indiana	5-7	1.166	0.87065	0.4329	-2.0
85	Northern Illinois	8-6	0.9801	0.85929	0.4266	-2.1
86	Virginia Tech	6-7	1.016	0.85631	0.4249	-2.2
87	Southern Miss	6-5	0.6729	0.84406	0.4181	-2.4
88	San Diego State	7-6	0.8401	0.83179	0.4112	-2.6
89	Wyoming	6-6	0.8538	0.81491	0.4015	-2.9
90	Florida State	5-7	1.122	0.75207	0.3646	-4.0
91	Western Michigan	7-6	0.7784	0.7182	0.3440	-4.7
92	Louisiana-Monroe	6-6	0.7972	0.6993	0.3324	-5.0
93	Colorado	5-7	0.8399	0.69827	0.3317	-5.1
94	Hawaii	8-6	0.7174	0.64634	0.2992	-6.2
95	South Florida	7-6	0.744	0.64623	0.2991	-6.2
96	UCLA	3-9	1.297	0.64568	0.2988	-6.2
97	Southern Methodist	5-7	0.8583	0.63238	0.2904	-6.5
98	Liberty	6-6	0.6379	0.58543	0.2604	-7.5
99	Coastal Carolina	5-7	0.8356	0.56576	0.2477	-8.0
100	North Carolina	2-9	0.9773	0.54982	0.2375	-8.4
101	Charlotte	5-7	0.7903	0.54208	0.2325	-8.6
102	Navy	3-10	0.9911	0.53593	0.2286	-8.8
103	Illinois	4-8	0.8528	0.52671	0.2227	-9.0
104	Kansas	3-9	0.8451	0.46171	0.1814	-10.9
105	Arkansas	2-10	0.9748	0.4472	0.1723	-11.3
106	UNLV	4-8	0.6991	0.4321	0.1630	-11.8
107	New Mexico	3-9	0.7589	0.42315	0.1575	-12.1
108	Tulsa	3-9	0.7009	0.41578	0.1530	-12.4
109	Old Dominion	4-8	0.6471	0.41418	0.1520	-12.4
110	Western Kentucky	3-9	0.6396	0.4115	0.1504	-12.5
111	Texas State	3-9	0.6364	0.38453	0.1343	-13.5
112	Massachusetts	4-8	0.7295	0.38132	0.1324	-13.6
113	Ball State	4-8	0.6849	0.37774	0.1303	-13.7
114	Akron	4-8	0.7292	0.36847	0.1249	-14.1
115	East Carolina	3-9	0.7287	0.36462	0.1227	-14.2
116	South Alabama	3-9	0.8203	0.36421	0.1224	-14.2
117	Rutgers	1-11	1.007	0.33861	0.1080	-15.3
118	Kent State	2-10	0.7278	0.33809	0.1077	-15.3
119	Oregon State	2-10	0.961	0.33482	0.1059	-15.4
120	UTSA	3-9	0.7184	0.32699	0.1016	-15.8
121	Bowling Green	3-9	0.6784	0.31017	0.0926	-16.5
122	Colorado State	3-9	0.685	0.30799	0.0914	-16.6
123	Louisville	2-10	0.9566	0.29989	0.0872	-17.0
124	Georgia State	2-10	0.7887	0.29574	0.0851	-17.2
125	San Jose State	1-11	0.7693	0.28508	0.0796	-17.7
126	New Mexico State	3-9	0.6537	0.2839	0.0791	-17.8
127	Central Michigan	1-11	0.623	0.23501	0.0560	-20.4
128	Rice	2-11	0.6148	0.18542	0.0361	-23.8
129	Connecticut	1-11	0.7207	0.17691	0.0330	-24.4
130	UTEP	1-11	0.539	0.17096	0.0309	-24.9
131	1-AA	7-105	1.024	0.12112	0.0160	-29.8