Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry Ratings for College Football 2017

Updated through games of January 8

Parameters

Home field: Multiply home rating by 1.299
Victory point formula: `V_A=1/(1+e^(-M_A/6.5))`
Win probability for a matchup: `W_(A,B)=R_A^1.92/(R_A^1.92+R_B^1.92)`
Expected margin for a matchup: `M_(A,B)=14.0*ln(R_A/R_B)`
Home field equivalent to 3.7 points in expected margin

Ratings

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	Rating	Win % vs Average	Margin vs Average
1	Georgia	13-2	1.795	6.0969	0.9698	25.3
2	Alabama	13-1	1.591	6.0508	0.9694	25.2
3	Wisconsin	13-1	1.328	5.7142	0.9660	24.4
4	Central Florida	13-0	1.091	5.191	0.9594	23.1
5	Clemson	12-2	1.576	5.1616	0.9590	23.0
6	Penn State	11-2	1.442	5.0139	0.9567	22.6
7	Ohio State	12-2	1.59	4.5477	0.9482	21.2
8	Oklahoma	12-2	1.52	4.3651	0.9442	20.6
9	Auburn	10-4	1.811	4.2731	0.9421	20.3
10	Notre Dame	10-3	1.617	3.8636	0.9305	18.9
11	TCU	11-3	1.329	3.2088	0.9037	16.3
12	Washington	10-3	1.081	2.9454	0.8884	15.1
13	Oklahoma State	10-3	1.197	2.5201	0.8550	12.9
14	Miami FL	10-3	1.354	2.4407	0.8472	12.5
15	Mississippi State	9-4	1.326	2.4084	0.8439	12.3
16	Iowa	8-5	1.549	2.3445	0.8370	11.9
17	Florida Atlantic	11-3	0.8709	2.3335	0.8357	11.9
18	USC	11-3	1.293	2.3012	0.8320	11.7
19	Michigan State	10-3	1.441	2.3007	0.8320	11.7
20	North Carolina State	9-4	1.326	2.2231	0.8226	11.2
21	Boise State	11-3	1.01	2.2006	0.8197	11.0
22	Michigan	8-5	1.375	2.1644	0.8150	10.8
23	LSU	9-4	1.249	2.1626	0.8147	10.8
24	Northwestern	10-3	1.214	2.0969	0.8056	10.4
25	Stanford	9-5	1.322	2.0941	0.8052	10.3
26	Memphis	10-3	1.03	2.0777	0.8028	10.2
27	South Florida	10-2	0.7449	2.0151	0.7934	9.8
28	Iowa State	8-5	1.226	1.9637	0.7851	9.4
29	Virginia Tech	9-4	1.089	1.9441	0.7818	9.3
30	Louisville	8-5	1.169	1.787	0.7530	8.1
31	Fresno State	10-4	1.012	1.756	0.7467	7.9
32	Wake Forest	8-5	1.356	1.7287	0.7410	7.7
33	Texas	7-6	1.17	1.69	0.7325	7.3
34	Purdue	7-6	1.253	1.6398	0.7210	6.9
35	Toledo	11-3	0.7981	1.6205	0.7164	6.8
36	Troy	11-2	0.7437	1.6091	0.7137	6.7
37	Florida State	7-6	1.301	1.5398	0.6961	6.0
38	San Diego State	10-3	0.8043	1.5315	0.6939	6.0
39	South Carolina	9-4	1.128	1.5303	0.6936	6.0
40	Boston College	7-6	1.349	1.5047	0.6867	5.7
41	Ohio	9-4	0.7222	1.497	0.6845	5.6
42	Washington State	9-4	1.104	1.4665	0.6759	5.4
43	Appalachian State	9-4	0.7221	1.4124	0.6599	4.8
44	Army	10-3	0.8743	1.4074	0.6584	4.8
45	Utah	7-6	0.9886	1.3752	0.6483	4.5
46	Navy	7-6	1.226	1.3731	0.6477	4.4
47	Duke	7-6	1.048	1.3633	0.6445	4.3
48	Kansas State	8-5	0.9828	1.3507	0.6404	4.2
49	Georgia Tech	5-6	1.185	1.3412	0.6373	4.1
50	Houston	7-5	0.9791	1.3188	0.6298	3.9
51	Oregon	7-6	1.025	1.2606	0.6094	3.2
52	Texas A&M	7-6	1.101	1.1987	0.5861	2.5
53	Marshall	8-5	0.7529	1.155	0.5687	2.0
54	Arizona State	7-6	1.129	1.1291	0.5580	1.7
55	Kentucky	7-6	1.061	1.1161	0.5525	1.5
56	Missouri	7-6	0.9816	1.1156	0.5523	1.5
57	Indiana	5-7	1.147	1.1131	0.5513	1.5
58	Arizona	7-6	0.8976	1.1099	0.5499	1.5
59	West Virginia	7-6	1.056	1.0756	0.5349	1.0
60	Arkansas State	7-5	0.6313	1.059	0.5275	0.8
61	Mississippi	6-6	1.022	1.0471	0.5221	0.6
62	Louisiana Tech	7-6	0.7321	1.0378	0.5178	0.5
63	Wyoming	8-5	0.7493	1.0341	0.5161	0.5
64	Temple	7-6	0.9142	1.0212	0.5101	0.3
65	Northern Illinois	8-5	0.7885	1.02	0.5095	0.3
66	Texas Tech	6-7	1.146	1.0193	0.5092	0.3
67	Minnesota	5-7	1.108	0.99257	0.4964	-0.1
68	Southern Methodist	7-6	0.9627	0.99191	0.4961	-0.1
69	Buffalo	6-6	0.7605	0.9907	0.4955	-0.1
70	California	5-7	0.9844	0.94228	0.4715	-0.8
71	Pittsburgh	5-7	1.062	0.9218	0.4610	-1.1
72	UCLA	6-7	1.19	0.89611	0.4475	-1.5
73	North Texas	9-5	0.8622	0.88732	0.4429	-1.7
74	Colorado State	7-6	0.7191	0.87537	0.4365	-1.9
75	Tulane	5-7	0.9445	0.86683	0.4318	-2.0
76	Florida	4-7	1.17	0.85797	0.4270	-2.1
77	Western Michigan	6-6	0.7999	0.85577	0.4258	-2.2
78	Eastern Michigan	5-7	0.8299	0.84398	0.4193	-2.4
79	Utah State	6-7	0.7585	0.8412	0.4178	-2.4
80	Syracuse	4-8	1.199	0.8099	0.4002	-3.0
81	Middle Tennessee	7-6	0.7041	0.80318	0.3963	-3.1
82	UTSA	6-5	0.5975	0.79562	0.3920	-3.2
83	Maryland	4-8	1.475	0.79353	0.3908	-3.2
84	Nebraska	4-8	1.309	0.78343	0.3849	-3.4
85	Virginia	6-7	1.026	0.78335	0.3849	-3.4
86	Central Michigan	8-5	0.7428	0.77709	0.3813	-3.5
87	Vanderbilt	5-7	1.016	0.77449	0.3797	-3.6
88	Colorado	5-7	0.878	0.75705	0.3695	-3.9
89	Florida International	8-5	0.7107	0.75117	0.3660	-4.0
90	Miami OH	5-7	0.6952	0.7415	0.3603	-4.2
91	Southern Miss	8-5	0.6498	0.73602	0.3570	-4.3
92	Alabama-Birmingham	8-5	0.5784	0.71386	0.3436	-4.7
93	Akron	7-7	0.9115	0.70897	0.3407	-4.8
94	Air Force	5-7	0.8911	0.65338	0.3064	-6.0
95	New Mexico State	7-6	0.6704	0.6433	0.3001	-6.2
96	Arkansas	4-8	1.098	0.63769	0.2965	-6.3
97	Tennessee	4-8	1.019	0.61567	0.2827	-6.8
98	North Carolina	3-9	1.048	0.60989	0.2790	-6.9
99	Rutgers	4-8	1.075	0.59892	0.2720	-7.2
100	UNLV	5-7	0.6733	0.57224	0.2551	-7.8
101	Georgia State	7-5	0.5979	0.56771	0.2522	-7.9
102	Tulsa	2-10	0.9908	0.55173	0.2420	-8.3
103	Idaho	4-8	0.6605	0.53249	0.2297	-8.8
104	Brigham Young	4-9	0.8191	0.50395	0.2115	-9.6
105	Nevada	3-9	0.8043	0.50183	0.2102	-9.7
106	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8	0.8066	0.49807	0.2078	-9.8
107	Massachusetts	4-8	0.6535	0.49474	0.2057	-9.9
108	South Alabama	4-8	0.7034	0.48221	0.1978	-10.2
109	Western Kentucky	6-7	0.5698	0.47766	0.1949	-10.3
110	New Mexico	3-9	0.8182	0.4687	0.1892	-10.6
111	Old Dominion	5-7	0.6535	0.42815	0.1640	-11.9
112	Cincinnati	4-8	0.8643	0.42514	0.1622	-12.0
113	Louisiana-Lafayette	5-7	0.6264	0.39682	0.1450	-12.9
114	Baylor	1-11	0.9632	0.38974	0.1407	-13.2
115	Connecticut	3-9	0.8298	0.3743	0.1316	-13.8
116	Bowling Green	2-10	0.8388	0.3552	0.1205	-14.5
117	Illinois	2-10	0.999	0.34031	0.1121	-15.1
118	Coastal Carolina	3-9	0.5955	0.3357	0.1095	-15.3
119	East Carolina	3-9	0.8111	0.33464	0.1089	-15.3
120	Hawaii	3-9	0.6591	0.32213	0.1020	-15.9
121	Georgia Southern	2-10	0.7033	0.28969	0.0848	-17.3
122	Texas State	2-10	0.6547	0.27077	0.0753	-18.3
123	Oregon State	1-11	0.9603	0.26304	0.0715	-18.7
124	Rice	1-11	0.794	0.25335	0.0669	-19.2
125	Ball State	2-10	0.6874	0.25199	0.0662	-19.3
126	Kansas	1-11	0.9047	0.22447	0.0537	-20.9
127	Kent State	2-10	0.7925	0.2233	0.0532	-21.0
128	Charlotte	1-11	0.6994	0.21581	0.0500	-21.5
129	San Jose State	2-11	0.7734	0.20973	0.0475	-21.9
130	1-AA	9-89	0.9847	0.14837	0.0250	-26.7
131	UTEP	0-12	0.7903	0.14601	0.0243	-26.9